Heat Advisory Today and the 4th for Heat Index Values Up to 110°, Dodging Afternoon Storms Today + The 4th

Two main headlines for the next couple of days.

• Heat Advisory will be in effect today and tomorrow during the afternoon and evening, heat index values (“feels like temps”) are expected to be in the 105 – 110° range.
• Scattered shower/lightning storms will be possible today and tomorrow (more likely on the 4th), a few could be strong with straight-line winds.

First up, the heat.

The nasty one-two punch of air temps in the mid to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the mid 70s will lead to these heat index values shown above today and during the 4th.

If outdoors, be sure to take breaks and drink plenty of water. And look before you lock, never leave children or pets inside a parked vehicle. Check in on friends + family who may not have access to A/C.

The scattered shower/storm chances may help cool us off but may also put a damper on afternoon BBQs.

The chance of you seeing any rain today is quite low, as storms will be isolated at best. If you do see a storm, some brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty wind will be possible.

Rain chances increase Thursday (the 4th), especially during the afternoon and evening.

I think the 18z HRRR model does a decent job of representing the good and bad news for tomorrow.

Bad news:

• scattered storms will be possible during your pool/lake day plans.
• lightning and heavy rain will be possible with any rain, a few storms could pack some strong wind.
• if you do have outdoor plans tomorrow, be sure to have an indoor place to take cover while the storm rolls on thru.

The good news:

• most models show the rain/storms diminishing before sunset, leaving us with dry firework shows
• models are not perfect and could be wrong, but signs are encouraging

Of other note, the HRRR model soundings around firework time show a pretty sharp temperature inversion right above the surface.

If this were to happen, it could act as a lid, trapping a lot of the smoke from local firework shows, making things a bit hazy.

Friday morning thru around lunch look wet, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible, but nothing cray-Z expected.

After that, we should be left with a dry + “cooler” weekend. Rain chances return early next week.