Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center increased our probabilities for severe weather on Tuesday.
Both our counites have been outlooked with a:
- 30% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
- 15% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
- 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
These probabilities could change. The Storm Prediction will update these several more times between now and Tuesday afternoon.
Main concern tomorrow will be damaging straight-line winds, but severe hail (1″+) and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Timing:
The most likely ETA continues to be 1 – 8p Tuesday, with most models showing an arrival of Tuesday afternoon.
Here is a look at three different runs of the HRRR model, all valid at 3p Tuesday. All 3 runs agree that storms, possibly severe, will be around our area at this time.
Don’t focus on the exact placement of the storms! Just know that severe storms are possible in the timeframe of 1 – 8pm Tuesday.
Our severe threat will diminish after sunset.
Our storms may arrive tomorrow in the form of supercells, a cluster, and/or a line. Due to the potentially isolated nature of the storms, everyone may not experience a strong storm, or even rain at all.
How to Prepare:
No reason to panic, but it is a good idea to get prepared now.
You need to be weather aware tomorrow. With the timing of the storms possibly coming in during evening rush hour, you need to be paying attention and checking back for updates. You will not want to get caught driving in a storm. Outdoor practices look like a no-go tomorrow afternoon.
Mobile homes are not safe during severe weather. Ask a friend if you can hang out at their house while these storms pass. If you know someone who lives in a mobile home, extend the invitation out to them.
You may know there is a chance for severe weather tomorrow, but does your family? Friends? Neighbors? Help spread the word.
Know the difference between a Watch and a Warning.
Know where to go if a warning is issued for you! More info on that here. Know where your safe place is whether you are at home, school, work, etc.
Be able to pinpoint your house/work/school on a map. Know what county you live in and be able to mark exactly where you live on a map. You can’t know if you are included in a warning if you don’t know where you live/work.
Storm anxiety is real, and you aren’t the only one. We have an article that may help here.
If a warning is issued for our area tomorrow, we will go live on our YouTube channel.
We’ll be sending out updates frequently today and tomorrow. Another blog will be published this afternoon with new data. Check back in for forecast changes, as they are possible.
We’ll dry out Wednesday, temps will stay cooler the rest of the week.
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