The Storm Prediction Center came out with their midday update for Tuesday and have upped our probabilities for severe weather tomorrow.
Both counties are outlooked with a:
- 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles (some of which could be strong, EF2+)
- 30% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles (some gusts could be hurricane force, 74mph+)
- 30% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
These probabilities are subject to change.
Timing:
Our main window for severe weather appears to be Tuesday afternoon.
The latest HRRR model (above) shows the most likely ETA being 2 – 4pm Tuesday afternoon. *This could change!*
The potentially severe storms will quickly move thru and likely be out of our area by sunset.
Earlier models had some rain in the area Tuesday morning which could help limit our CAPE (storm fuel). Recent model runs show a dry Tuesday morning, this will have to be watched.
There is also a chance the storms form on top of us and quickly move east, which would help limit our severe threat. Although this is not currently expected, it is a possibility.
All modes of severe weather will be possible as the storms move through our area, with damaging straight-line winds being the main threat. Our main focus will be storms that manage to stay isolated, these cells would carry the main concern for any tornadoes, which could be strong and/or long tracked.
How to Prepare:
With the timing of the storms coming near school dismissal/rush hour, it will be important to stay connected today and tomorrow. You do not want to be driving or outside when this passes thru. Have a plan to be inside a sturdy structure tomorrow afternoon.
A mobile home will *not* be a safe place to be.
Know where to go if a Tornado Warning is issued for you. Lowest, most interior room in a sturdy building. More info on that here.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Whether it be an app, NOAA Weather Radio, or the Wireless Emergency Alerts from your phone, the more, the merrier.
Make sure your friends, family, and neighbors are aware of the potential severe weather.
If you have storm anxiety, you are not alone. We have an article here that may help.
Continue to stay connected for any updates. We’ll be on X/Twitter for this event and will go live on our YouTube channel if a warning is issued.
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