Forecast Blogs

Chances For Severe Weather Friday PM and Tuesday

Waking up to cool temperatures, but they’ll quickly rebound into the low 60’s, making for a nice day. Tomorrow will be similar, except temps won’t be as cold in the mornings, and we’ll make our way to near 70°. Dry both days.

We are still outlooked for severe weather Friday.

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West of I-65 there is a 30% chance within 25 miles, east of I-65, a 15% chance within 25 miles. Generally speaking, I think places in West TN and points further west have a better chance of severe weather than we do. Wind shear looks to be sufficient for severe weather, however we have a lot of other factors that say “Ehhh…this looks meh.”

  • CAPE (storm fuel) looks real low
  • Morning showers will help stabilize the atmosphere
  • Although this seems counterintuitive, the atmosphere may be too moist for organized severe weather

No reason to write this threat off, a lot could (will) change between now and then, but so far signs are encouraging.

There EURO model, above, shows on/off showers all day before the line moves through Friday night. Wayyy too early to try to nail down a specific ETA, but a broad timeframe would be after dark.

Rain/storms will move out before sunrise Saturday, leaving us with a dry and warm rest of the weekend.

If you were hoping for a break from severe weather after this, you’re out of luck. Welcome to spring.

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We are yet again outlooked with a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles on Tuesday. This is a ways away, and we have to get through Friday first, but we’re watching it.

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Categories: Forecast Blogs