Strong or Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday
Our active Spring continues. Another storm system is on the way.
Rain is possible in the morning, as what’s left from the severe weather system in Oklahoma moves east. However, it looks more like those storms will impact west Tennessee and move into Kentucky. So says the HRRR model, below:
The above model only takes us through 8 AM. The GFS model thinks we could see rain around lunchtime.
This is not the rain for which severe weather is a concern.
The real rain/storm ETA is later in the day, into the evening, when strong to severe storms are possible.
The ETA window will need adjustment, but right now it looks to be around 4 PM to 10 PM.
Instability and shear will be on the rise, making damaging winds and hail the primary threat.
Tornadoes are a lesser concern. GFS and NAM3 forecast soundings continue to say the storms will be based too far up from the ground to present a concerning tornado threat.
The Storm Prediction Center still has us in its 15% probability area. This afternoon, they wrote that in the yellow area below, “a few supercells/clusters and small bowing segments [aka thunderstorms] may organize by mid/late afternoon, yielding a threat for large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening hours.”
This is not a freak-out forecast, but it should have your attention. Secure your trampolines (God’s frisbees) other wind-movables.
All the usual disclaimers apply. Consult multiple reliable sources multiple times for local weather as this forecast is refined, updated, and improved.
A pretty quiet week is ahead…until another storm system arrives Thursday/early Friday.
The latest run of the GFS model delivers a surface low to our north and drags a cold front through Tennessee Thursday night.
This is also what the Euro model says. Expect rain and storm — possibly severe storms — late Thursday into the wee hours of Friday morning.
Writing about this system today, NWS-Nashville wrote “[t]his should be a deeper system with greater shear and possibly greater instability, so it could pose a greater threat of severe weather compared to recent storms.”
Needless to say, we’ll be watching this one very closely.
As for the next weekend, well, looks pretty good, but that’s based on assumptions about Friday that are unresolved.
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