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Downgraded, Severe Weather Possible

Current Temps and Radar

Late This Afternoon and Evening – Big Storms Staying North, but Will Head Our Way After Dark 

What a difference a day makes… Yesterday we had an enhanced risk for severe weather, but today we have been downgraded and placed on the border of a Marginal risk. The environment is most unstable to our north, and that’s where the strongest storms have stayed this afternoon, more around the orange bubble:

Our area has a 5% chance for hail larger than 1″ and damaging thunderstorms winds (greater than 58 mph) if thunderstorms develop. Additionally, the risk of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of us today is just 2%.

Here is a zoomed in look showing Davidson and Williamson county just outside of the severe weather concern:

The low pressure center to blame for the storm is so powerful it’s wrapping a lot of dry air around its south side. That’s good news for us, and is why severe storms haven’t been an issue for us this afternoon.

However, we are not out of the woods.

Models are coming into agreement on pushing a line of potentially severe storms through tonight. So, our concern is switching from super cells to a line of storms, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

Below is a look at the NAM 4 KM Model at 7 PM:

This model has the storms staying #NorthofNashville until the cold front pushes thunderstorms into Middle Tennessee later on. Here’s the same model at 10 PM:

The storms that this model is showing could potentiality become severe and is the reason why we will still have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Summary:

The NWS has Downgraded Nashville to a Marginal risk of severe weather because most of the activity will stay north of the TN/KY border. We still may see isolated storms before the line of storms arrive tonight, though things have been very quiet so far. That line will push south into Middle Tennessee late tonight, and give us a chance for thunderstorms.

Sunday – Clearing Out Late – Wake Up: 59º, High: 68º

Some lingering showers in the early morning. The GFS shows the showers to our east between 7 AM and 1 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-25 08.48.54

We will be mostly cloudy for most of the day, but slowly clear as we approach the evening.

Monday – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up: 46º, High: 67º

We will be mostly sunny with temps reaching the upper 60’s! The wind will by blowing between 10 mph  – 15 mph, with gusts of 20 mph.

We will become partly cloudy overnight.

Extended: 

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-25 08.58.03

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Uncategorized