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Saturday Night Storms

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Dramatic Warm Up Saturday

Rain

Windy

& Even a Few Thunderstorms

Tonight – Off & On Rain – High 41°

Off and on rain, aided by an arriving southerly wind, remains in tonight’s forecast.

South winds will even cause our temps to increase overnight.

Saturday  Rain & Thunderstorms – Wake Up 42°, High 63°

The morning will feature more off and on showers and maybe even a small thunderstorm. Meanwhile, temps will climb into the low 60°s. Saturday morning will be the best time to take down outside Christmas decorations, because the weather is going to deteriorate rapidly Saturday night.

A squall line is expected to arrive at the Mississippi River around 10 AM.

Rain chances increase through the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are likely after dark. The NAM4 model (see above) shows the storms weakening and strengthening, with the heaviest storms expected here around 10 PM:

The GFS and Euro models are in general agreement with the timing of the rain/storms.

The Storm Prediction Center believes there will be enough shear and maybe/barely enough instability to qualify us for a “Marginal” chance of severe thunderstorms with the arrival of the squall line.

SPC thinks there’s a 5% chance of a severe weather event happening to or within 25 miles of us. On a scale of 0 (naaaah!) to 5 (repent), this is a 1. The NWS-Nashville afternoon forecast discussion points out shear aloft may be enough to support a few supercells embedded inside the messy squall line’s arrival Saturday night. Weather nerds are looking with interest at the forecast curved, counterclockwise hodographs (band name!), which is nerd for “the wind profile looks supportive for some severe weather.” This is kind of like saying the storms have “a great personality.” Meaning, it’s lacking other essential elements to be considered a complete package.

The newest SPC update comes out at 1 AM. We’ll know more then. For now, the storms look to be stronger to our south.

The GFS model thinks we could see more than 2″ of rain through midnight Saturday:

The Euro model thinks the heavier rain will be south of us, and gives us only 1″.

Sunday – Lingering Shower & Cooling – Wake Up 45°, Temps Leveling/Falling Thru the Day

We will hold on to a chance of light showers until noon. By this time the cold front will have pushed through and cool/drier air will be funneling in. This means that our high will be reached in the morning and the temperature will continuously drop throughout the day.

Overnight into Monday morning we will bottom out in the lower 20°s to start the colder than normal week ahead

Extended:

extended

Very cold temps are expected Wednesday & Thursday. We may not make it above freezing.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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