Rain Tuesday, Christmas Eve Snowflakes?


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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Temps, warming pretty nicely today.

Rain, maybe as early as Monday morning

TodaySunny – High 53°

We started off a bit chilly this morning, but sunny skies and a light southerly breeze will help warm us up into the lower 50’s.

Overnight, clouds will build in from the south.

Monday – Showers Possible Wake Up 40°, High 56°

We will have a “slight chance” for hit/miss showers during the day as moisture continues to funnel into Middle Tennessee on a 10 mph – 15 mph south wind.

Tuesday – Showers, Possibly A Thunderstorm Wake Up 51°, High 60°

The low pressure system coupled with a cold front will send a line of showers/few thunderstorms our way. The NAM is showing a weak squall line to be on our doorsteps around Noon.

18z tuesday nam

The best chance for a thunderstorm will be during the afternoon. Rain will continue throughout the afternoon into the overnight hours as a moist southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Here is a look at the NAM from 3 PM.

21z sim rad

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center believes we will see 0.5″ – 1″ of rain from 6 AM Tuesday through 6 AM Wednesday.

qpf day 3



Dreaming of a White Christmas Eve?

On Wednesday (Christmas Eve) the cold front will have pushed through, and a little precip will hang around. Between midnight and 6 AM, the GFS model is showing the heaviest precip … but the cold air will not be overhead yet. This will likely all be rain.

6z - 12z 850 precip GFS

After 6 AM, colder air will move in and we could see a few snowflakes, but none of it is expected to stick. The GFS shows that the surface is too warm for any snow to accumulate on Wednesday.

no snow accum

The Canadian Model is painting the same picture as the GFS. Rain overnight transitioning into a few snowflakes after sunrise as the cold air moves in overhead.

Here is the Canadian model between midnight and 6 AM. This shows temps at 5,000 ft too warm to develop snow.

6z - 12z 850 precip Can

The Canadian Model also thinks the surface will be too warm for snow accumulation.

no snow accum can

There are no major impacts expected from this event here in Nashville. But, maybe a few flakes in the air.

Colder temperatures are on the way, arriving between Christmas and New Year’s.

We think this signals a pattern change, giving us the temps we need to make snow, assuming we get a decent storm in here. The Music City Bowl, I mean, the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, looks like it may be as cold this year as it was last year.

Statistically speaking, Nashville has a very low chance for snow on Christmas. The map below depicts which places have the best chance of being a winter wonderland according to weather history. The “Historical Probability of a White Christmas Map” shows the climatological probability of at least 1 inch of snow being on the ground on December 25 in the lower 48 states.

Historical Probability of a White Christmas Map

On the map, dark gray shows places where the probability is less than 10 percent, while white shows probabilities greater than 90 percent. Although we will likely not have any snow accumulation on Christmas Eve, we can all enjoy the snowflakes we may see. Christmas Day looks dry, sunny, and crisp.

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