Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
Tonight – Rain … We Think … Probably … We Suppose
Showers and storms have been popping up sporadically in Middle TN ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW.
Nashville, other than a brief rainer throwing an E Nashville tantrum this afternoon, has been relatively sparse compared to what’s been happening in S and W TN.
Overnight, the cold front will be even closer, making rain and a few thunderstorms likely tonight. The Hi-Res NAM model thinks we’ll see rain and storms around 8 PM:
The HRRR likes the idea of rain/storms around 7 PM:
Even the RAP model has rain tonight (8 PM):
All that said, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the models after reviewing the current radar trends, but there is every reason to think there should be rain tonight. Whether it happens, I dunno, so, we wait, and we watch.
The Storm Prediction Center does not think these storms will become severe.
However, there will be a slight chance for damaging winds (probability 5%).
These showers and thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours tomorrow.
Thursday – Rain Early, Mostly Sunny Late – Wake Up 70, High 83
The NWS believes the bulk of the showers should depart by 1 PM.
Here is what the NAM’s Simulated Radar shows at 1 PM:
A few isolated light showers will be possible after 1 PM.
Once the cold front and associated showers move past during the afternoon we will become cooler than normal, dry and mostly sunny.
Friday – Sunny & Dry – Wake Up 62, High 89
We will be cooler than normal under sunny skies!
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Categories: Forecast Blogs