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Slowly Clearing Out (And About Last Night)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Today  Chance of Thunderstorm, Partly SunnyHigh 87

A “cold front”

should arrive in Nashville this afternoon. It’s not so much a “cold front” as it is a “lukewarm front,” because it will not cool us off much nor give us a big chance for rain.

The National Weather Service believes there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms before 2 PM but the best chance for Here’s a look at the Simulated Radar from 1 PM:

18z NAM

ThursdaySunny – Wake Up 67, High 87

The “cold front” that pushed through Wednesday will leave a cool and dry NW wind in its wake. This will lower humidity and eliminate our rain chances. In addition, high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes which will help keep us sunny and dry as well!

Thursday – Sunny – Wake Up 67, High 90

High pressure and a Northerly wind will continue to dominate our weather pattern.

Extended Forecast:

extended

Editor’s Note: Here’s what I posted this morning (titled “Wrong”) about yesterday (which was Tuesday):

Monday, 4:12 PM, from the Hydrometerological Prediction Center (and everyone else) said rain, and lots of it:

 Tuesday, 12:57 PM

Tuesday, 5:18 PM

Note: there was one earlier run of the Hi-Res NAM (which is having a great summer, BTW) that had this pretty much nailed. More recent runs of the Hi-Res NAM did not, as did every other weather model. There were meteorological reasons to believe gardeners would have the night off.

Now, to be fair, Spring Hill and S Williamson Co got a lot of rain, some wind (maybe even a downburst, see below), and lightning.

Even at 8:04 PM, the Storm Prediction Center still has us outlooked for severe weather potential.

By 9:25 PM, it was looking apparent nothing would happen.

Results: very, very little rain in most places.

Davidson Co:

Williamson Co.:

I could get super technical and otherwise justify little, but certainly not most, of this. But, in the final analysis, this is appropriate:

As the great James Spann (@spann) says, “there is a lack of humility in the weather enterprise. We aren’t as good as we think we are.” This is indisputable.

The atmosphere is incredibly complex, we don’t understand it well enough, we don’t have nearly the amount of data we need to understand it well enough, and we all need to recognize and embrace that. A lot of good work is done in weather, but sometimes we get it wrong. If you’re looking for expressions of perfect foreknowledge in weather, let me know where you find it.

If, after reading this, you’re still aggrieved: don’t worry, The Intern 2.0 will be by shortly to water your lawn.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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