Forecast Blogs

Wet, Stormy, Maybe Severe Weather Tonight

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

TodaySevere Weather Possible Tonight – High 88

**Note: This is an overview/forecast. For current “in progress” information, see us on Twitter @NashSevereWx and/or consult reputable weather sources**

All eyes are on what will happen later today. This isn’t expected to be a “high end” or even a “medium” severe weather event, but it’s something to pay attention to. After all, every storm is a non-event…unless it happens to you.

Last night, an MCS (Cluster of thunderstorms) formed in Northern Missouri, then moved into Southern Missouri and Illinois. This cluster of storms has sent an outflow boundary in our direction that will help instigate a second round of (possibly severe) storms by this afternoon or tonight.

Here is what the timing according to the NWS looks like for Middle Tennessee.

The HRRR thinks the big storms will arrive tonight, sometime before midnight. I like the NWS graphic, above.

The Storm Prediction Center has put a majority of Tennessee at risk for severe weather.

SPC Day 1

The main threats will be damaging winds, hail, and localized flash flooding.

SPC thinks the probability of “x” happening to you, or within 25 miles of you, today is:

30% for damaging winds,

15% for hail, and

2% for a tornado.

WednesdayChance For Thunderstorms  – Wake Up 72, High 86

A cold front will be pushing through Middle Tennessee Wednesday morning. It should move all the way through the area by noon, ending most, if not all, of the rain.

By the time it’s all gone, we expect to see about 1.5″ of rain.

The NAM’s Simulated Radar shows the line of showers S of Williamson and Davidson Counties by 1 PM.

18z NAM

The NWS believes we will see the sun sometime Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 66, High 86

Extended Forecast:


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Categories: Forecast Blogs