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Severe Weather Potential Late Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

TodayMostly Sunny, Slight Chance for Thunderstorms Late – High 91

Mostly sunny today. There’s a small chance of a shower popping up, but we think that’s unlikely.

Overnight, our eyes will be trained to the NW. A MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), fancyspeak for a cluster of storms, is forecast to develop over Missouri, Illinois and Indiana… Then possibly drift SE towards Middle Tennessee.

The HRRR’s Simulated Radar shows the MCS struggling to make it into Tennessee between 2 PM and 11 PM.

The NWS thinks that this MCS will stay N of us. There’s a small chance it’ll track further South. If it does, a weakened cluster of storms could clip Nashville early Tuesday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting that Davidson and Williamson Counties just outside of the severe weather threat associated with the MCS:

SPC Day 1

Tuesday – Humid & Thunderstorms Likely  – Wake Up 71, High 93

Once the MCS clears out, another one is expected to actually make it here late Tuesday afternoon/night, being helped along by a cold front.

The NAM Simulated Radar has the leading edge of these showers and thunderstorms in Nashville at 4 PM.

21z NAM

The Storm Prediction Center believes these storms may be severe:

spc day 2

The main threats will be gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding is also a concern.

Here’s a review of the hazard potential from our NWS:

WednesdayCloudy, Thunderstorms Likely – Wake Up 72, High 87

The slow-moving front will be to blame for showers and thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday morning, ending sometime Wednesday afternoon.

The NAM shows the line of thunderstorms past Davidson and Williamson Counties by 4 PM.

21z NAM 2

The SPC has not outlooked us for any severe weather after 7 AM Wednesday.

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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