Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Tonight – Rain, T’Storm Chances Increase Overnight – 10 PM Temp 71
The above meteogram shows our rain chances increase from “slight chance” to “likely” by 7 PM, then to “occasional” by 1 AM wednesday. The NWS has our chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning after 8 PM tonight.
Our short range weather models (HRRR and RAP) keep all the rain safely to our W and NW for the remainder of the day. We think tonight’s ball games will be mostly rain free but they could see some showers if they run late (past 8 PM). The showers will be isolated and will move on quickly.
Here is a look at the RAP simulated radar model from 3 PM to 12 AM
The bulk of the rain and storms arrive tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Wednesday – Rain, Isolated Severe Storms Possible – Wake Up 66, High 76
According to the HRRR model the bulk of the rain and storms will begin at 2 AM…
…The NWS believes it will begin after 4 AM. Either way, the rain will begin while most of us are asleep and continue throughout the day.
Wednesday looks like a washout. Our local NWS office and the Weather Prediction Center forecast about 1.25″ of rain for the 24 hour period beginning 7 PM Wednesday.
According to the NAM model, the heaviest rain fall for Nashville will be between 4 and 7 PM.
Speaking about the entire yellow-shaded area below . . .
. . . the Storm Prediction Center summarized:
That said, this morning our local NWS office wrote that shear levels (a key severe weather ingredient) are expected to be low, so this remains a “low end” severe weather forecast. It certainly should not set off panic/alarms, but check reliable weather sources today and especially tomorrow in the event this changes.
Even if this turns out “only” to be an isolated severe weather event regionally . . . it won’t feel that way if it “isolates” on you.
Thursday Through Sunday
Cooler, with highs around 70 each day, all courtesy of the cold front associated with tomorrow’s rain/storms. We can’t rule out a shower, but none are expected.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.