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Updated: Rain & Storms – Some Possible Severe – Tomorrow

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Rain, T’Storm Chances Increase Overnight – 10 PM Temp 71

The above meteogram shows our rain chances increase from “slight chance” to “likely” by 7 PM, then to “occasional” by 1 AM wednesday. The NWS has our chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning after 8 PM tonight.

Our short range weather models (HRRR and RAP) keep all the rain safely to our W and NW for the remainder of the day. We think tonight’s ball games will be mostly rain free but they could see some showers if they run late (past 8 PM). The showers will be isolated and will move on quickly.

Here is a look at the RAP simulated radar model from 3 PM to 12 AM

The bulk of the rain and storms arrive tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.

WednesdayRain, Isolated Severe Storms Possible – Wake Up 66, High 76

According to the HRRR model the bulk of the rain and storms will begin at 2 AM…

7z

…The NWS believes it will begin after 4 AM. Either way, the rain will begin while most of us are asleep and continue throughout the day.

Wednesday looks like a washout. Our local NWS office and the Weather Prediction Center forecast about 1.25″ of rain for the 24 hour period beginning 7 PM Wednesday.

qpf

According to the NAM model, the heaviest rain fall for Nashville will be between 4 and 7 PM.

0z

Speaking about the entire yellow-shaded area below . . .

. . . the Storm Prediction Center summarized:

That said, this morning our local NWS office wrote that shear levels (a key severe weather ingredient) are expected to be low, so this remains a “low end” severe weather forecast. It certainly should not set off panic/alarms, but check reliable weather sources today and especially tomorrow in the event this changes.

Even if this turns out “only” to be an isolated severe weather event regionally . . . it won’t feel that way if it “isolates” on you.

Thursday Through Sunday

Cooler, with highs around 70 each day, all courtesy of the cold front associated with tomorrow’s rain/storms. We can’t rule out a shower, but none are expected.

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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