Thunderstorms Likely Today

Bobby McIllece —  Tuesday, September 2, 2014 8:52 am

Current Radar

Current Official Temp (taken at :53 every hour)

Today Afternoon Thunderstorms Likely– High 89

A (shortwave) disturbance is quickly advancing towards Middle Tennessee from the Great Plains. The National Weather Service has its ETA at or just after 1 PM. The HRRR is also putting the showers and thunderstorms in Nashville around noon.

The HRRR Model’s Simulated Radar puts thunderstorms overhead at 12 PM, poised to arrive at 1 PM.

17z HRRR sim radar

The NAM shows less intense showers and thunderstorms, but has rain in Nashville at the exact same time the NWS is calling for it. Here is a look at the NAM’s simulated radar for 1 PM.

18z NAM sim radar

Based on the models and the NWS, expect showers and thunderstorms to begin sometime this afternoon. A front will succeed the shortwave disturbance and give us a chance for showers and thunderstorms until 1 AM. That said, the HRRR thinks the rain should end around sundown.

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting no severe weather for Nashville; however, a strong storm (gusty winds, small hail and a brief heavy downpour) is possible.

WednesdayChance of Thunderstorms – Wake Up 71, Highs 91

The typical summertime pattern returns: chance of afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms.

ThursdayChance for Thunderstorms – Wake Up 72, High 94

We will have anther day with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. It looks like a little disturbance coming off the Gulf Coast will bring us a chance for rain in the late afternoon.

The NAM is showing thunderstorms firing up in Nashville at 4 PM.

21z NAM satrad

No severe storms are expected at this time from this disturbance.

Extended:

extended

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