Heavy Rain Mid-Week, Stormy Weekend Possible

Brendan Schaper —  Tuesday, January 17, 2017 10:20 am
Current Radar

Attention Turns To Heavier Rain Wed. PM – Thurs. PM

A surface low is expected to track from the Gulf Coast northward along the Mississippi River, increasing shower/thunderstorm activity across much of the mid-south. Rainfall here in Nashville could accumulate to 1″+ in some spots, considering the strength of this system. No severe weather is expected at this time.

GFS Forecast, Wed. 6PM – Fri. 12PM

Unknown

Let’s compare rainfall totals…the GFS model (only computer guidance) versus the Weather Prediction Center’s human-refined forecast:

GFS Forecasted Rainfall through Friday 12PM…

gfs_apcpn_seus_13

…versus WPC Rainfall Forecast¬†through 6AM Friday

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Bottom line: it appears that 1″ of rain by Friday at noon is likely. Whether some spots receive 1.50″ or greater seems to be based on rainfall rates, which could be fairly steady on Thursday.

Thundery Weekend Weather

NWS Nashville thinks Saturday night through Sunday could be a bit bumpy:

In the ext fcst, An unsettled and mild pattern can be expected
through the period, for the most part. A strong storm system will
bring showers and some tstm activity Sat nt and Sun. An upper level
low will track across the southeastern U.S. by Monday and may bring
some cooler temps and some additional rainfall.

Watch the GFS model as it develops a strong low pressure system over Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas and propagates it northeastward towards us:

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This means showers AND thunderstorms this time, with the potential for a few stronger storms. Severe weather seems unlikely right now, but this idea could change as we approach the weekend. Hail and gusty winds would be the main concern.

Stick with us on Twitter for any additional information on heavy rain this week and the stormy pattern over the weekend.

Temperature Trend via Extended Graphic Forecast

Screen Shot 2017-01-17 at 10.24.38 AM

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.