Trick-or-Treat Forecast

David —  Friday, October 31, 2014 4:48 pm

Current Temp:

Next 48 Hours: Red Line Temp, Blue Line Wind Chill

Next 48 Hours: Top line shows wind gusts, bottom line shows sustained winds:

Trick-or-Treat – Very Cold and Windy

Sorry, Sam. Yes.

The strong cold front is here, bringing gusty winds (15mph – 25mph with gusts of 25mph – 30mph), and the coldest temps of the season.

Current radar indicates the bulk of the rain moving E and away from us:

This HRRR future radar loop shows a “bowling ball” feature rotating in to East Tennessee later tonight and the wee hours of Saturday morning. The rain & snow should stay comfortably E of 65.

Even the visible satellite shows clearing clouds:

Wind chills will be in the 30°s during the entirety of Trick-or-Treating and HS Football.

Freeze Warning is in effect while we sleep tonight.

Saturday – Very Cold; Freeze Warning – Wake Up 32°, High 47°

We will start Saturday off with a Freeze Warning (through 9 AM) and end it with a Freeze Warning (11 PM Saturday – Sunday 8 AM). Wake-up wind chills will be in the low 20°s.

During the day we will be dry and sunny, but sustained winds of 15 to 20 MPH will keep the wind chill in the 30°s for most of the day.

Saturday night will be even colder than Friday night. Lows will likely stay right below 30°. Temps will be colder early Sunday morning, but the wind won’t be that bad.

Don’t forget: Daylight Savings Time ends at 2 AM on Sunday.

dst

Sunday COLD!Wake Up 28°, High 53°

We will still be cold Sunday, especially in the morning, but the winds will relax and the wind chills won’t be as bad as Saturday morning. The sun will be out, commencing a warming trend.

Official Extended NWS Forecast shows the warming trend.

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Internet Explorer 2014-10-31 16.46.22

Editor’s Rant for NFL fans, which our Twitter Analytics page says y’all love almost as much as Jimmy Fallon.

Today this article, titled “Bill Belichick Rips Meteorologists Everywhere: ‘They’re Almost Always Wrong’,” appeared on our Twitter timeline.

I loved and hated it. Mostly hated it.

Loved

This quote from Belichick: “My experience of going with the forecasts in this area two days before the game, I’d bet a lot they’re wrong, just based on history, because they’re almost always wrong. An hour before the game, maybe you might have something to work with there. If you start game-planning for what the weather is going to be, and you’re wrong, you’ve wasted a lot of time.”

He’s right about this. Forecasting a 4 hour block of time 48+ hours in advance can be very difficult.

Hated

Basically everything else.

  • We played down in Miami two years ago and there was a zero percent chance of rain, zero, and it rained. I’m just telling you.” Nice sample size. That’s what happens if you’re consulting a crap app, Bill. Just like a football game, the forecast changes. If you expect certainty from a 48+ hr forecast, you will be disappointed. The problem isn’t the forecast. The problem is your expectation. It would be like us telling you Gostkowski sucks because he missed a 65 yard field goal. The problem isn’t the kicker. The problem is expecting your FG kicker to make a 65 yd field goal.
  • “I’m not saying I could do it better than them,” Belichick said. “I’m just saying they’re wrong a lot. That’s a fact. They’re wrong a lot. We all make mistakes. I’m not being critical of them. I’m just saying I don’t think you can go based on [forecast].” First, yes you are being critical. Second, a weather forecast isn’t saying “we’re always right!” (if you find one that says that, RUN AWAY FROM IT). We’re saying: “the atmosphere is incredibly more complex than a football scheme, but based upon the science and the best efforts of an industry full of smart people, this is what we think will happen.” As James Spann says, “we aren’t that good.” Stop pretending like there is certainty in a forecast, then saying “you’re wrong.”  Your game plan isn’t a “mistake” and it’s not “wrong” when you lose because some idiot hit Brady low, broke his leg, and you lost the game because of it. So stop saying the weather industry is “wrong” or has made a “mistake” when the data is bad, or something unexpected happens. Embrace uncertainty, Bill. 
  • If I did my job way they did theirs, I’d be here about a week.” Forecasts are pretty tough when you don’t have a spy camera watching the future, Bill.

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