Rain, Storms…then Cooler

Bobby McIllece —  Wednesday, July 23, 2014 11:03 am

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Tonight - Rain … We Think … Probably … We Suppose 

Showers and storms have been popping up sporadically in Middle TN ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW.

Nashville, other than a brief rainer throwing an E Nashville tantrum this afternoon, has been relatively sparse compared to what’s been happening in S and W TN.

Overnight, the cold front will be even closer, making rain and a few thunderstorms likely tonight. The Hi-Res NAM model thinks we’ll see rain and storms around 8 PM:

The HRRR likes the idea of rain/storms around 7 PM:

Even the RAP model has rain tonight (8 PM):

All that said, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the models after reviewing the current radar trends, but there is every reason to think there should be rain tonight. Whether it happens, I dunno, so, we wait, and we watch.

The Storm Prediction Center does not think these storms will become severe.

SPC Day 1

However, there will be a slight chance for damaging winds (probability 5%).

These showers and thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours tomorrow.

Thursday Rain Early, Mostly Sunny Late – Wake Up 70, High 83

The NWS believes the bulk of the showers should depart by 1 PM.

Here is what the NAM’s Simulated Radar shows at 1 PM:

18z NAM

A few isolated light showers will be possible after 1 PM.

Once the cold front and associated showers move past during the afternoon we will become cooler than normal, dry and mostly sunny.

Friday – Sunny & Dry – Wake Up 62, High 89

We will be cooler than normal under sunny skies!

Extended Forecast:

extended

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