Rainy Labor Day Weekend

Bobby McIllece —  Friday, August 29, 2014 11:04 am

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Today A Day of Dry Air – High 95

No rain today. Just heat. The NAM’s Dew Point Map shows the area of drier air over us at 1 PM.

18z 2m dew point

No rain expected for H.S. football tonight.

Current Radar

Labor Day Weekend – WET! – Wake Up Low 70s, Highs Upper 80s

This infrared image from 9:45 AM Friday shows the approaching Labor Day Weekend Weathermaker.

ifrared

A low pressure system in the Great Plains will arrive, picking up the energy from the giant blob (disturbance) in the Gulf of Mexico. These two disturbances . . .

. . . will combine to activate a rain out of part of our Labor Day Weekend:

This morning, it appeared the rain was likely to begin Saturday morning. This afternoon, weather model runs suggest it won’t start until after noon. Now, tonight, short-range models predict rain will start mid-to-late morning. As always, use weather models for guidance, not gospel.

The heaviest rain, with a few thunderstorms, will likely begin in the late afternoon and early evening. The NAM thinks the worst of it will arrive in Williamson and Davidson County at 7 PM. The other weather models agree.

0z radar

These showers and storms will continue overnight into Sunday morning.

As we approach noon on Sunday, the showers will begin to taper off. Scattered (hit and miss) showers will become prevalent in the afternoon into the early evening, before settled weather arrives and the rain shuts off on Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting severe weather for us. Just rain with a few garden variety thunderstorms.

From Friday morning to Monday morning the Weather Prediction Center believes between 1″ and 1.5″ of rain will fall.

qpf 1-3

I am forecasting closer to 2″.

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-29 13.08.44

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.