Winter Facts

Freezing

Nashville hits freezing for the first time on average on October 31. This year it was October 29. Earliest October 2, 1984, latest November 27, 2009.

Snow

First measurable snowfall (>.01″) on average December 23. Mean last snowfall February 27.¬†Earliest October 31, 1993, latest April 10, 1973.

Snow Totals

Nashville area snow totals 1873-2016

Mean (Record)

Nov 0.3″ (9.2″, 1950)

Dec 1.3″ (13.2″, 1963)

Jan 3.0″ (18.8″, 1948)

Feb 2.7″ (18.9″, 1979)

Mar 1.3″ (21.5″, 1892)

Apr 0.0″ (1.5″, 1910)

Mean 8.6″

But if we take it climatologically since 1980, it’s 5.7″. That average was 6.3″ two winters ago. Old records unreliable.

Last winter 2.2″ (0.3″ December, 0.4″ January, shutout in February, 1.5″ in March).

Two winters ago 11.3″ (8.2″ in January, 3.1″ in February).

Three winters ago 6.1″ (0.2″ in November, 0.9″ in January, 2.1″ in February, and 2.9″ in March).

Winter Severe Weather

9% of all tornadoes in November, 2% in December.

Nashville had December tornadoes we know about in 1904, 1964, 1988 (F4 Christmas Eve in Will Co), 2015 Festivus Day outbreak, 2 fatalities in Hickman/Perry Counties.

January tornadoes an even longer list. Among those Davidson Co had an F2 at 255 PM on January 12, 1916. On January 22, 1957, a tornado touched down north of Percy Warner Park, moved NE passing just north of Sevier Park, across 40, to Donelson and almost to Hermitage. Nocturnal outbreak occurred January 30, 2015, 23 tornadoes in a squall line.

Three Month Seasonal Outlook Nov – Dec – Jan

Equal Chance of normal precip.

40% chance of above normal temps.

Panic Catfish

Rapidly Changing Forecasts, forecasting snow is very difficult, so much can go wrong — Dry Air Monster, temps aloft too warm, rain escapes before the freeze.

Know your Wintry Precip types: Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow.