Very warm work week is in store for us. High temperatures will be ~20° above average over the next several days, including flirting with the daily record high on Thursday.

This won’t last too long – a cold front will come thru sometime later this weekend and bring temperatures back closer to average for this time of year.

Fairly quiet first half of the week. Perhaps a quick, light shower Wednesday afternoon/evening – but these chances are unimpressive.

The second half of the week is when things pick up a tad, and we’ll see at least a couple rain chances during this time.

With this all being 3+ days out, information can and will probably change. Be sure to stay connected for the latest information!

We kick things off Thursday, with what appears to be two main timeframes for rain/storm potential – the early morning hours and later that evening. Those are very much subject to change.

Yes, the Storm Prediction Center does have an area outlooked for severe weather potential. However, as of right now, we are not included in that area.

While it looks like a strong storm or two would be possible, models are really not showing the necessary ingredients for severe weather.

On top of the questionable upper-level support, models are very unimpressed with expected CAPE totals (storm fuel).

To visualize, here’s the National Blend of Models thinking on how much Surface-Level CAPE will be available at 6p on Thursday – only around 100 J/kg. For reference, around 500 J/kg is what is considered “sufficient” for severe weather – pending other factors.

All that to say, we’ll be watching all the data come in throughout the week – but severe weather is not a concern for us as of right now.

Low rain chances hang around each day thru the weekend, but those are pretty meh right now and fairly low confidence.

For now, enjoy the warmer temps! Although it won’t be as warm on Saturday, SWAD is indoors on and will be a great time as always. Come hang out at Trevecca and nerd out with a bunch of weather enthusiasts.