Today will be our last day of our two-day preview of Spring. High temps will easily make it into the low 70s – over 20° above average for this time of year. We’ll get fairly close to our daily record high of 76° set all the way back in 1932.

Temperatures will come down a good bit after a cold front moves thru tonight, but we’ll still manage to be above average for the rest of the week (avg. high is ~50°).

Rain chances will increase after sunset tonight. Just some showers during the overnight hours, no hazardous weather concerns. Should be all gone by the AM commute on Wednesday.

HRRR model gives a guess:

We get a break from the rain chances from Wednesday thru Saturday morning.

Our rain chances return sometime on Saturday, continuing on/off thru the day Sunday.

“Models seem to be coming into better agreement with the overall pattern of a deepening surface low tracking from the southern plains to the TN Valley late Saturday through Sunday. Rainfall totals around 2 inches are in the latest forecast for the weekend. These totals are likely to change up or down with updated model runs through the week.” – NWS Nashville AFD

That’s a good, healthy rain. We should be able to avoid any flooding issues as long as that rain is spread out enough over those two days. Can’t rule out some locally higher amounts underneath a thunderstorm, but we should also avoid any severe concerns with this system, with the surface low expected to track to our south.

As we get closer, we’ll be able to narrow down some timing and rainfall amounts. For now, if you have any outdoor plans this weekend – it’s not a bad idea to start thinking of some indoor alternatives.

NWS Nashville is offering several free, online SKYWARN Storm Spotter classes over the next month or so. This is a great opportunity to learn information that can really make a difference with reporting, especially with Spring right around the corner. I highly recommend trying to attend one!

Severe Weather Awareness Day (SWAD) is also right around the corner. This is another great event that NWS Nashville puts on. It’s a day full of meeting other weather nerds, listening to some great presentations, and more. More info here: