Our rain/storm chances are returning today, although we aren’t guaranteed rain.

To address the elephant in the room first, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked most of Davidson Co. and far NW WillCo. with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line and hail, as well as a 2% chance of a tornado – all within 25 miles.

Storms don’t care about these lines, so a strong or maybe severe storm can’t be totally ruled out for anyone – but odds are “higher” (although they are very low everywhere) to our north.

Our rain/storm chances should hold off until tonight, with today being dry. We’ll have a strong breeze from the S throughout the day with gusts up to 35mph – bringing in our warm and moist air.

The HRRR model (and others) show storms firing in KY and gradually weakening as they drift towards us – probably not arriving until closer to 10p – midnight. Timing subject to change.

The concern for severe weather is very, very low – but it isn’t zero. It’s a good idea to have a way to wake up in case a warning is issued for you. Odds are you won’t need to be woken up, but it’s good practice – especially since we are in the midst of our second severe weather season.

Wednesday thru middle of the day Thursday should be dry.

Rain is likely to return at some point Thursday PM with chances sticking around majority of the day on Friday.

Models are still not in agreement on exactly how things play out Thursday/Friday, so confidence on timing is very low. It certainly won’t rain the entire time. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out as well, but currently we are not outlooked for any severe weather.

Chances taper off Saturday morning, and we’ll be left with a mostly dry weekend, although we could see a shower at some point Saturday/Sunday.

Temperatures stay warm over the next 7 days, just not as warm by this weekend.

Still-way-too-early guess for Thanksgiving continues to be slightly above-average temps w/ rain chances. I have more confidence in the Titans winning on Sunday than this forecast – if that tells you anything.