What:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our two counties with the following probability of ‘x’ within 25 miles:

• 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds (58mph+)
• 5% chance of severe hail (1″+)
• 2% chance of a tornado

When:

A broad timeframe will be 2p-10p, but a narrower one for us would probably be 6p-10p.

The 12z HRRR model thinks most of the activity occurs between dinner and sunset.

Damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat we deal with, but we can’t rule out some hail either. The tornado risk is very, very low – but not zero. Overall, the severe threat is relatively low.

What To Do:

The timing of this is extremely inconvenient, but when is it not.

For those with plans to go watch FNL, going out for dinner or to hear some live music, whatever it is – need to stay connected. Keep an eye on our socials, have a way to receive warnings, know where a nearby, enclosed structure is (you don’t want to get caught outside in a storm, severe or not).

If we do get a warning for any portion of our two counties, we’ll go live on our YouTube channel: Nashville Severe Weather @NashSevereWx – YouTube

A potential “wrench in the gears” to the severe threat would be a layer of stable air that develops closer to the surface – which would lessen, but not completely nullify our severe threat. Something to watch, and root for.

Some more showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, will swing thru Saturday morning. Most, if not all of it should be gone by lunch – but your Saturday morning plans will probably be wet. Farmer’s market doesn’t look promising.

We’ll soak up all the rain we can get. Rainfall totals for this look to generally be around 1″.

After the rain departs, we’ll be left with a dry weekend – and unfortunately for the grass, majority of next week looks dry as well.

The good news is that cooler and drier temps will follow the rain. Temps warm back up by the middle of next week, but dewpoints will stay in the 50s – so somewhat tolerable.