Low to medium rain chances will be with us from Wednesday thru at least Monday.
Good news is that it likely won’t rain every day and rainfall totals look fairly light.
NWS Blend of Models thinks we only see about 0.5 – 1″ of rain thru Monday evening – good news for ballfields.
Rain chances on Wednesday look to peak during the morning hours thru the early afternoon.
HRRR model (shown below) isn’t too thrilled about any rain, while other models think it’s more likely. Overall, models have backed off a bit on chances. Regardless, any rain would be light – don’t see anything that looks plan-altering.
Scattered showers/storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours of Thursday. And thanks to sufficient CAPE (storm fuel) and lapse rates – the stronger storms could pack some gusty winds and small hail.
Impossible to nail down exactly when and where these may (or may not) occur. Some of us will probably end up dry, while your friend across town might see a decent storm.
As of right now, both the GFS and Euro models think Friday is dry – let’s hope this is correct.
Once we get to Saturday and Sunday, the disagreement begins. The GFS thinks we deal with rain both Saturday and Sunday – while the Euro thinks we get away with a dry weekend.
Which one is right – it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe neither. Fingers crossed it’s the Euro for the sake of Steeplechase and the other thousand outdoor plans happening this weekend.
Temperatures stay around average for early May over the next week.
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