Today will be one of those days that you’ll need to stay connected and weather aware throughout the day.
Frequently check back in for updates, know where to shelter if a warning is issued for you.
There is still uncertainty and unfortunately there may be some questions that simply cannot be answered.
Mid Afternoon thru Late Evening Today:
Before the severe weather talk, winds are howling and will continue to do so through the evening. Gusts (outside of storms) up to 50 mph are possible.
The latest runs of the HRRR model have continued to show the potential for discrete supercells somewhere in Middle TN. Good news, the HRRR model is far from perfect and could be wrong – other models don’t think this happens.
This will have to be watched. Exactly when and where these supercells form (even if they do) cannot be answered.
If storms do form, they’ll carry the threat of tornadoes (possibly strong), large hail, and damaging straight-line winds along with the usual heavy rain and lightning. Timing is rough, but let’s call it 4p – 8p will be the main time to watch for these.
Tonight thru Early Thursday Morning:
There will be a break at some point between our two potential rounds of severe weather, probably sometime between 8p – 11p, give or take an hour or so.
Regardless of whether or not we see storms this afternoon/evening, we will still deal with the possibility of severe weather overnight.
We are still expecting severe storms to develop over Arkansas/W TN, the big question still is how far east does the line get? Models continue to believe it’ll eventually make its’ way to our area, which leads us to the next question of how much “weaker” will it be when (if) it arrives? Models continue to go back and forth on if the line and/or ingredients for severe weather makes it this far.
The main threat with the line of storms will be damaging straight-line winds and embedded tornadoes.
I’ll let the 18z run of the HRRR model loop, from this afternoon to Thursday morning. Take this as guidance, not gospel.
What To Do:
- Stay connected! We’ll be posting updates on all of our socials all day and night as needed. Do not go to sleep without checking back in first. We’ll go live on our YouTube channel *if* a warning is issued.
- Have (multiple) ways to receive warnings! Between the threat this afternoon/evening, and especially the overnight threat – you need to have ways to get warnings. NOAA Weather Radio, Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone (make sure they are ON and your DnD is OFF), wake-me-up apps (such as StormWatch+) are all great ways.
- Know where your safe place is! Basement or lowest-level, most interior room putting as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Helmets, shoes, charged mobile devices. Mobile homes are not safe in severe weather. More info here : What To Do: Tornado Watch vs. Warning | Nashville Severe Weather
- Take care of yourself. None of this info is meant to scare you. Talk about severe weather can get heartrates up, and that is OK. We have a great article here on storm anxiety: Taking Care of Storm Anxiety | Nashville Severe Weather
Stay connected and informed and we’ll get thru this just fine.
Thursday:
Storms could be ongoing Thursday morning depending on exactly where the front stalls out at.
On/off showers and storms will be possible thru the day, and our severe threat will creep up again during the afternoon/evening – with all hazards including damaging straight-line winds, hail, and tornadoes possible. Higher threat currently to our W and SW.
Friday:
Good news is Friday has trended drier – and we are not included in any severe weather probabilities. Can’t rule out a shower or storm during the afternoon/evening but think most of us stay dry.
Saturday/Early Sunday Morning:
One final wave of potentially severe weather + heavy rain.
All modes of severe weather will again be possible on Saturday. Timing is still unknown – current rough timeframe would be Saturday afternoon thru early Sunday morning.
Forecast can and probably will change between now and then. Having a backup plan for any outdoor activities is not a bad idea.
Flooding Potential:
Due to the multiple rounds of heavy rain, we are still watching the threat for flooding. Flash flooding and rises on rivers and creeks will both be possible.
3 to 6″ of rain thru Sunday AM will be possible throughout our two counties, higher amounts more likely to our NW.
If you live in a flood-prone or low-lying area, stay connected. Never drive thru flooded roads – turn around, don’t drown.
We will finally clear out sometime Sunday. Whew.
Dry weather and much cooler temps will move in. Frost/freeze possible early-to-mid next week.
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