Locally dense fog remains possible beginning at midnight tonight lasting through the mid-morning hours on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The HRRR model illustrates:
That wintry weather will not come here, but the rain will. The rain ETA has bounced between late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Bet on Tuesday morning.
Short answer is not really. We are going to see a little bit of sun tomorrow if everything goes right, but that’s about it. In the short term we’ll see less of a rain chance than we’ve seen in the last 72 hours. Clouds will try to push out to the N and warm air will try to move up from the S. The HRRR below shows limited rain in the very short term.
Rain is moving through the area now, as projected, and will exit by later this evening. Clouds will continue to hang with us into Sunday, as simulated below:
HRRR Cloud Cover through Sunday AM
Additionally, some cooler air will creep into middle Tennessee later today/tonight as high pressure begins to build in. Winds will become northerly, assisting in the transport of colder temperatures.
While we were sleeping last night, that cold front we have been talking about passed through our area. This front helped to turn our winds, which are now out of the north/northeast.
The cold front is currently sitting just to our south and looks to stay there for the next few days as a stationary front.
Update: An approaching cold front will spark shower activity later this afternoon and evening. Expect rain sometime around the late evening commute through the overnight.
Once the weak cold front passes to the south of our two-county area, it will establish itself as a stationary front for a bit across the southern TN border. Highs on Friday afternoon will be in the middle 50s, averaging about 15º cooler than today’s high of 70º. Tomorrow night, warm air surges back into the region ahead of a warm front. Speaking of warm, check out this guinea pig:
This week’s forecast continues to be an interesting one with a chance of rain really each day. Temps will stay much above average and even our overnight temps will remain fairly warm through the rest of the week.
In addition to strapping down any loose items outside, you’ll need the rain gear tonight/tomorrow. Latest high resolution guidance shows rain moving through the Davidson/Williamson County area:
We officially hit that above freezing mark this morning at 9 AM. At least for next 7 days, we do not expect to go below the freezing mark. Say goodbye to those freezing temperatures!
For the rest of the day today, we will begin to notice our skies becoming gradually cloudier.
We never officially got above freezing at BNA (high 30°), but remember, the official temp is measured inside a shade box. Sunlit areas very likely rose above freezing, aiding in snow/ice melt.
Ice you can see, and black ice you can’t see, should still be an issue on many secondary roads tonight and in the morning. We will drop to 20° before the sun comes up Monday morning.
Officially, BNA dropped to 8° this morning. A few personal/COOP weather stations around town went lower, 2° in Brentwood and 3° in Franklin.
Today’s official high is 29°, but that’s in the shade; most places exposed to the sun should go over freezing and evaporate/melt the snow. Shaded areas will have a more difficult time clearing ice/snow.
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