Temps are quickly recovering from the mid 30’s, we’ll end up somewhere around 63° for a high temp today. An abundance of sun will hopefully make it feel not as cool.
Low temps tonight will dip back down into the upper 30’s. Some cloud cover should prevent frost, but it also wouldn’t hurt just to keep them covered up.
High temps well below normal today will set us up for frost tonight, as low temps will dip all the way down into the mid 30’s. Protect plants and such before you go to bed.
The GFS model think rain returns on Wednesday, and the EURO model thinks the rain holds off for the most part until Thursday PM. More models lean towards the Wednesday solution, but things tend to change in weather. The models should come into agreement sooner than later. But generally speaking, every day during the back half of the week has rain chances.
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A line of rain is slowly, but surely, making its way toward us. When it gets here, nobody knows. JK we kinda have an idea of when.
HRRR model (above) shows rain creeping in sometime this afternoon. This run holds the majority of it off until around 3 or 4pm, but I think any time after noon, you can expect on/off rain. Coverage will increase as we head into the evening, transitioning into a good, soaking rain for a few hours. No severe weather or flooding concerns. You may hear some thunder, but nothin’ crazy. Rainfall totals around an inch, your grass will be thankful.
Both counties are under a Red Flag Warning from 11am-7pm today. These aren’t super crazy rare for us, we had two last year, but not all that common either. Relative humidity from 20-25% + wind gusts up to 30mph will mean any fire that starts will likely spread rapidly. Pretty please, do not burn stuff outside today. Pretty please, do not do anything that could create a spark or flame. I asked nicely? Smokey the Bear would greatly appreciate it.
For this time of the year, temps will be a little cooler, but the air is dryyyy. Dewpoints as of 10am are in the mid 20’s, with relative humidity values around 30%. These dry conditions, combined with winds gusting from 20-30mph at times today, will lead to an increased fire danger. Recent rains will help keep this threat from being widespread, but don’t plan on starting a bonfire today.
Now through the afternoon looks great, lots of sun, will feel like spring outside.
Then some question marks start to arise.
The HRRR model shows some pop-up showers forming to our west during the early evening hours. This particular run of the HRRR thinks these don’t really make it here or they miss us to our north. Other models agree, and think we miss out on rain/storms, giving green lights for outdoor activities tonight (until midnight but this will be later addressed). This is all positive news. However, models are not right all the time. I see no reason to not go forth with your plan A but have an indoor plan B justtt in case. Don’t let rain break your heart.
