Isolated Strong to Severe Storm Possible This Evening, Legit Cold Arrives This Weekend
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Elan
Before we get into everything else, today will be the last “nice” outside day we have for the foreseeable future. Highs will reach into the low 70s with plenty of sun.
We continue to be outlooked with low-end probabilities for severe weather this afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a:
- 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds
- 5% chance of severe hail (along and N of I-40)
- 2% chance of a tornado
all within 25 miles of any given location.
Models continue to not be very impressed with this set-up, due to the lack of ingredients – specifically the lack of instability (storm fuel). However, in these late season set-ups, it doesn’t take much storm fuel for storms to act up – so it’s certainly not one to ignore.
The main threat will be some gusty winds and small hail, but a quick spin-up tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
The HRRR model has been fairly consistent, showing the line of showers/storms swinging thru between 5-9p this evening.
As always, we’ll be watching and posting updates to all of our socials as needed. *If* we do get a warning, we’ll go live on our YouTube channel.
Stay connected throughout the day and have multiple ways to receive warnings! It’s certainly not unheard of to get these low-end setups late in the season, so it’s always best to stay prepared – not scared.
Unfortunately, this does not look like a bigtime rainmaker for us. Some may see nothing at all, while others may see around 0.25″ if they get a storm that passes thru. Regardless, this won’t make much of a difference in our drought. New Drought Monitor will be out Thursday morning.
After that cold front swings thru Wednesday evening, the rest of the week will be fairly dry and much cooler. We could see a few light showers Thursday afternoon, but other than that, nothing.
The main story will be the coldest air so far this fall that settles in this weekend, bringing us our first widespread freeze of the season.
Nashville has yet to reach freezing, which is a bit behind the average first freeze of November 1st, but not by much. That will likely occur Friday night into Saturday morning, with some of us reaching the mid 20s.
All outdoor activities this weekend, from FNL playoff games to the Titans game on Sunday will require some layers. ‘Tis the season.
