Conditional, Low-End Severe Threat Wednesday PM, Widespread Freeze This Weekend
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Elan
Beautiful day ongoing, most of us are in the low 70s as of 4p.
Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are still possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Our severe chances are very low, but not zero.
The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and a 2% chance of a tornado, both within 25 miles.
This is a conditional threat, meaning it will only really materialize if specific ingredients like moisture and instability (storm fuel) come into play – which is very much up in the air right now.
Nerd-talk quote from the SPC: “Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early evening as the cold front interacts with the axis of greater instability. Strong mid-level wind fields may support a few strong, perhaps damaging, wind gusts. Additionally, forecast low-level wind fields indicate modest turning with height across the region, which may support a brief window for a tornado or two. This marginal tornado threat would be highly conditional on the quality of the low-level moisture and degree of instability that is realized.”
I’d go as far as to say as of right now, the ingredients aren’t expected to show up – but if they do – the severe threat could come to fruition.
The HRRR model gives a guess on how things might play out, showing a line of storms moving thru from our NW to SE areas, generally in the late afternoon thru evening timeframe. Good news is that this will be out of here before bedtime.
We’ll certainly keep an eye on things and see how they progress. Be sure to stay connected for the latest, most up to date information.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like a big-time rainmaker, with most of us at most seeing 0.25″ – which really won’t do anything to help out with our ongoing drought. We’ll take the rain, pass on any of the severe stuff.
November is the time of year where our severe weather chances start to ramp up again, so it’s always good to be prepared. If you need a refresher on things, here are some resources:
The forecast for tonight/Wednesday morning remains on track. These types of low-end severe weather setups are not all that uncommon this late in the year, as November is generally known as the start of our "second" severe weather season. Whether you've recently moved here or just… pic.twitter.com/Ue40pbwzJu
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) November 3, 2026
After the cold front pushes thru with our showers/storms, the remainder of the week will be drier and much colder.
Our first widespread freeze is likely on Saturday morning, as we’ll all get down to at least the upper 20s – with some more rural areas getting into the mid 20s. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach 50°. Just that time of year.
FNL playoff games and other outdoor activities Friday evening will be chilly. Prepare accordingly.
