Mostly Dry Halloween, Beneficial Rain Likely Arrives Mid Next Week
Friday, October 30, 2026 · Elan
Another day of mostly clear skies and warm afternoon temperatures. Highs will be around 80°, which is roughly ten degrees above-average for late October – but regardless, still great weather to be outside.
Halloween is tomorrow, and models continue to suggest mostly dry conditions throughout the entire day, including Trick or Treating.
High-res models are finally in range and are able to reaffirm the thinking of maybe a few sprinkles/light showers during the afternoon and evening – but mostly dry conditions.
Looking “under the hood” – models suggests the lower-levels of the atmosphere will be fairly dry, and will be able to evaporate most, if not all, of the rain before it reaches the ground.
A few sprinkles won’t get in the way of kids and their candy-getting, that’s for sure. Temperatures for candy getting will start off in the low 70s, cooling into the mid to upper 60s as the night goes on.
Things could change, but confidence in this is fairly high due to plenty of model agreement.
Sunday, especially the first half, looks to be fairly wet.
Showers will likely move in during the early morning hours of Sunday, continuing on/off through most of the day, tapering off as we get closer to dinner. Perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, but just mostly plain ole’ rain. The Euro model below gives a guess:
Rainfall totals will be unimpressive, generally around 0.5″. We’ll take it, but not incredibly beneficial.
However, beneficial rainfall does seem to be in our sight as another system will move in sometime around Wednesday. This quote from NWS Nashville sums things up well:
“This one will be larger, stronger, and slower moving, so rainfall totals are expected to be greater. Thankfully instability is unimpressive, so we are not worried about severe storms. Most of the midweek rain is expected to fall on Wednesday with a soaking rainfall event expected. NBM shows a 60-70% chance for at least an inch, and a 25-35% chance of some locations picking up closer to two inches.”
While this wouldn’t entirely erase our drought, it would put a dent in our rainfall deficit.
Don’t forget, we get an extra hour of sleep on Saturday night as we “Fall Back” early Sunday morning. Sunset on Sunday will be at 4:50p.