Close Call If We Get Dry Trick or Treating
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · Elan
Our lovely work week weather continues. Mornings that need a jacket or hoodie, with afternoons that you can forget the hoodie. Still dry.
We are still expecting rain chances to return sometime Saturday PM/Sunday AM. Exactly when this rain arrives has a bit on the line, with lots of candy-grabbing kids awaiting their big night.
This far out, we are still well out of range for any of the high-res models, so we turn to the global models along with their ensembles.
Without diving too much into things, I’ll put the models into two categories in regard to Trick or Treating.
Team Treat (Dry): Euro, AI Euro, AI GFS, Euro Ensemble, AI Euro Ensemble, AI GFS Ensemble
Team Trick (Wet): GFS, GFS Ensemble, National Blend of Models
This is certainly not an exhaustive list of all the models, but just enough to give a glimpse on their general thinking as of Tuesday morning. The high-res models will start to come into range on Thursday, and I would like to see their opinion on things as well.
It still seems the most likely solution is rain arriving late Saturday night, still giving at least somewhat of a window to treat or treat dry, but this is very much so up in the air.
For now, remain flexible with plans/costumes. A dry Halloween is not a promise, but neither is a wet one. The good news is that even the wet models suggest chances of lightning/thunder will be next to zero.
We’ll be watching the trends all week and keep y’all posted with the latest info.
Long-range models suggest another system will roll thru here next Tuesday-ish, providing additional rain chances – which we’ll take all we can get. Updated Drought Monitor comes out Thursday, and I can’t imagine it has good news.
