Watching Isaias, 1-3″ of Rain and Gusty Winds Possible This Weekend
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · Elan
Before we get into the Isaias talk, today and Friday remain dry and pretty warm, especially considering we are in October.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, around 10° above average. Don’t think we’ve quite decided on what season we want to be in just yet.
Isaias is now a Category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds at 85mph as of the 10a update from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm is expected to make landfall as a powerful Category 2 Friday evening somewhere between Mobile, AL and Destin, FL – with significant impacts stretching far from the center of the storm. If you are headed down there or already down there for Fall Break, please be sure to stay connected and get updates from trusted sources (such as the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices) and heed advice from local officials.
Here in Middle Tennessee, we will not be seeing any significant impacts from Isaias, which by the time it makes it up here, it’ll be losing its tropical characteristcs and falling apart quickly. We’ll be able to get some much needed, beneficial rain and perhaps some gusty winds.
Saturday will be the day where we see the majority of the activity. While the forecast is still certainly not a lock by any means, confidence continues to increase. However, timing, rainfall amounts, etc., are still subject to change – stay connected!
Rain will likely begin sometime Saturday morning, with winds slowly beginning to pick up. Models currently suggest the bulk of the rain will fall Saturday midday thru the early evening hours. During this time, on/off rain (mostly on + heavy at times) will be accompanied by the occasional wind gust up to 30-40mph. Secure outdoor furniture, Halloween decor, 88 lbs. aunts…
For those with outdoor plans on Saturday, I’d plan for rain – possibly lots of it. For those going to the Ole Miss v. Vandy game, I would plan on getting drenched and prepare to watch lots and lots of run plays.
It’s likely that rain will slowly begin to taper off Saturday evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers will still be possible thru Sunday afternoon, but a washout seems very unlikely. I’d still bring a poncho to the Titans game.
The Euro model (below) gives a decent guess, but this is certainly not set in stone.
While it’s currently not expected, there are a couple model runs (including the 12z GFS) that introduce a dry slot. We will have to watch where this sets up, if it happens to be over us, we would be disappointed by the rainfall amounts, although this would possibly open the door for dry Saturday late afternoon/evening plans. Something to watch.
Sometimes with landfalling tropical systems, they can cause spin-up tornadoes in their outer bands. While this is something we’ll keep an eye on, our threat seems to be very, very low. While wind shear will be plentiful, models point to instability (storm fuel) being zero. This is more of a threat in AL/GA/FL.
Earlier this morning, NWS Nashville issued a Flood Watch that includes Cheatham, Williamson, Davidson and Rutherford counties that will go thru Saturday morning thru Sunday morning. Wilson, Sumner, and Roberston could still see some heavy rainfall, but the bigger concern seems to be for the counties included in the watch.
While we could use the rainfall, it’s possible we see a bit too much of it.
Generally, 1-2″ of rain is expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding may be a possibility if some of those higher amounts are realized.
We’ll be able to get more specific on timing and rainfall totals over the next day or so as more model data comes in. Tropical systems are tricky, a wiggle east or west can make a big difference in the forecast.
Stay connected and check back for updates. We’ll be posting updates on all of our socials, as well as forecast breakdowns on our YouTube channel.