Isaias To Bring Rain, Gusty Winds This Weekend
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · Elan
Before we hop into the Isaias talk, do want to say that thru during the day Friday our weather will continue to be warm and quiet.
High temperatures will be nearly 10° above average, but with essentially no cloud coverage, plenty of radiational cooling will allow for mornings to still be fairly cool.
Outdoor plans thru FNL lights will stay dry.
Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Gulf and will move towards the central Gulf coast over the next few days. Although we normally don’t talk tropics here, we are likely to see some beneficial rain from this.
Before we talk about our area, I know it is Fall Break time for a lot of local schools around here. If you or someone you know is headed to the Gulf coast, specifically from the MS Coast thru the Florida Panhandle, please make sure they are aware of the forecast. Isaias is currently expected to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane Friday night. Folks should stay updated with the latest from *trusted* sources such as NHC (http://nhc.noaa.gov) and local NWS offices (you can always go to weather.gov and type in the city/zip code of where you are for the latest forecast).
Here locally, we are not expected to see significant impacts. By the time Isaias makes its way here, it will likely be post-tropical as it gets shredded by strong winds aloft. This will not only quickly weaken Isaias, but also cause its forward motion to speed up, limiting the amount of time we see impacts.
Timing of the system has also moved up, with the majority of the rain/gusty winds likely impacting us on Saturday.
*At this time*, models think the highest rain chances will be from midday Saturday thru the early hours of Sunday morning. This is very much written in pencil and subject to change.
During this time, rain (heavy at times) and wind gusts up to 30-40mph will be possible. It’s a good idea to secure/bring in any Halloween decorations you may have put up. If this holds true, Vandy game may be a monsoon while the Titans game could be alright.
Currently, rainfall totals are expected to be in the 1 – 2″ range. These should be spread out enough to avoid most flooding issues but can’t rule out some ponding on roads and such. We’ll keep an eye on this.
Just to give a general idea of things, I’ll show the latest Euro model run. This is certainly not exactly how things will play out but it does show a decent “median” thinking between all the models.
Sometimes, landfalling tropical systems can form quick, spin-up tornadoes in the outer bands of the storm. While this is something we’ll have to keep an eye on, the chances here appear very, very low. While we will have no shortage of wind shear, models suggest instability levels (storm fuel) will be next to none. This could change, but it is currently not a huge concern.
We’ll be posting updates throughout the week as new information comes in, information is very much subject to change. Be sure to stay connected as the forecast could change!