Quiet Work Week Continues, Keeping an Eye on the Gulf
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · Elan
Dry and warm conditions continue.
Although mornings will be fairly cool, we warm up quite well each day thanks to clear skies, with highs in the mid to upper 80s thru Friday, ~10° above average for early October.
Our dry will likely come to an end either Saturday or Sunday, but why we’re expecting rain is a little different than normal.
As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, the National Hurricane Center is still watching an area of interesting in the SW Gulf. Odds of the disturbance developing into a tropical system has now increased to 90% within the next 48 hours.
Majority of models show this developing and heading towards the Gulf coast, somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Where it goes will make a huge difference on whether or not we see a good bit of rain, or little to no rain.
I’m still going to refrain from getting into the specifics just yet since we are still several days out from any sort of impacts. If/when the system develops and the NHC starts putting out forecast cones, then we can start diving into the different scenarios.
For now, those with outdoor plans Saturday-Monday should plan some for possible rain and keep an indoor plan in the back of their mind. Sunday seems to be the most likely day to see rain, but the system could very easily slow down or speed up.
For Fall Breakers headed to the Gulf coast, I would highly encourage you to keep an eye on the forecast from trusted sources. There’s a lot of bad clickbait graphics going around right now. You can always go to weather.gov and type in the city/zip code you are visiting to get the latest forecast from the local NWS office.