Rain Returns Friday, Totals Trending Down
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · Elan
While it is still expected to rain this weekend, our totals continue to trend downwards, perhaps not providing as much relief as previously thought.
Today will bring one more day of hot and dry weather. High temperatures will reach into the mid 90s, nearly 15° above average. Our daily record high is 98°, so not quite record hot, but still hot. I thought we were leaving that in September.
Thursday will mark 36 consecutive days since BNA last recorded measurable rainfall. Friday will finally end that streak.
Rain chances will increase starting around midday Friday, with scattered showers and storms possible through the afternoon and evening, as shown below by the HRRR (guidance, not gospel).
This doesn’t seem like anything that would cause rainouts. No concern for severe weather, and even chances for lightning will be quite low. Can’t totally rule out some delays for FNL games, but if I had to guess, most get to play on with perhaps a passing shower or two.
Models have trended drier regarding Saturday.
Chances for any rain look to be mostly confined to the first half of the day, with on/off showers possible during this time. While rain chances aren’t zero for the afternoon and evening, it seems like most plans should be able to get off without a hitch – but still cannot rule out a quick passing shower.
I could honestly copy + paste the stuff above and replace ‘Saturday’ with ‘Sunday’.
Things continue to look drier for Sunday as well, with most of the rain chances being confined to the early morning hours thru the middle of the day. Afternoon and onwards, we start to dry out.
Our trend of lower rainfall totals has unfortunately continued. While it’s good news for those with outdoor plans, we do need the rain. We may be able to squeeze out around an inch of rain throughout the week, more or less depending on exactly where you are. Any rain is good, but this won’t put much of a dent in our worsening drought.
No additional rain is expected starting Monday thru at least the middle of next week.
Speaking of worsening drought, the new updated Drought Monitor was released today and to no one’s surprise, did not come with good news.
We have officially made it thru the driest September on record (and 2nd hottest). BNA only recorded a Trace of rain during the entire month – something that has only happened one other time (October 1963). Severe Drought now covers all of Davidson and Cheatham, with Moderate… pic.twitter.com/6xsXQOPTdL
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) October 1, 2026
It’s not all bad news; temperatures will at least come back down to around average – and we’ll be treated with cool morning and mild afternoons. Dewpoints will also drop back into the 40s, making things feel quite pleasant.
