While it is still likely to rain this weekend, totals don’t look as impressive as they once did. Models could very well trend the other way, but so far, it’s been in the drier (but not totally dry) direction.

But first, as we end September and start October, we are left with an all too familiar scene. Dry and hot for Wednesday and Thursday.

Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, around 10-15° above average. Not record hot, but certainly well above the norm.

Rain chances finally return Friday.

Showers will most likely start moving into the area sometime Friday midday/afternoon, with scattered showers and perhaps a storm continuing through the remainder of the day.

Certainly a good idea to bring rain gear for any of your Friday evening plans, including FNL. Although chances are low, some thunder can’t totally be ruled out, causing some delays in games.

Recent model runs now suggest Saturday looks drier (but not totally dry), with on/off showers possible throughout the day, but more off than on. We are still outside the range of the high-res models, so still don’t feel comfortable diving into the specifics on timing just yet. Still think it’s a good idea to have an indoor backup plan for any plans that may be affected by the rain, although good news is that storms will be very few and far between.

Current trends suggest Sunday will be the wettest day of the weekend, with coverage of showers being more widespread as the front finally pushes through. Chances appear to be highest during the first half of the day, tapering off as we get closer to dinner.

This is all very much subject to change and is the best forecast we currently have with the available data. Those with outdoor plans should stay connected and check back for updates!

We mentioned yesterday that rainfall totals were slowly coming down, unfortunately this trend is continuing.

Latest National Blend of Models (above) puts us just north of one inch, with heavier totals off to our east and south. These numbers are certainly not written in anything permanent. FWIW, both the latest GFS and Euro ensemble runs have us right around one inch.

A far cry from runs a few days ago that were throwing out several inches of rain, but after the September we’ve had, any rain will be beneficial.

We’ll begin to dry out Monday and have a cooler start to the week, with temperatures right around average.