We are close to some rain, but not quite there yet.

Dry weather will continue thru Thursday, combined with temperatures 10°+ above average for this time of year. A fitting way to end our month, which could go down as the hottest and driest September on record.

High temperatures Wednesday thru Friday will be around 90°, which very well may be the last time we see temperatures that hot this year.

Barring anything absolutely crazy, BNA will end the month with no measurable rainfall, something that has only happened once, October 1963.

Thankfully, we get rain back in the forecast this weekend.

Rain will likely return at some point Friday PM, with on/off chances continuing thru Sunday evening.

It’s still too soon to narrow down the specifics on timing, but anyone with outdoor plans this weekend should plan for some rain and think about indoor plans if needed.

The good news is that no severe weather is expected. Models suggest instability (storm fuel) will be quite low, so even chances for thunder appear fairly low.

Models have backed off ever-so-slightly on expected rainfall totals, but these numbers will likely continue to fluctuate over the next few days.

“Ensembles are giving a 50-60% chance of greater than 1 inch during this time, and a 20-30% of greater than 2 inches. Given the very dry antecedent conditions, soils will be able to handle a good amount of rainfall, but we’ll still monitor for low-lying flooding.” says NWS Nashville.

We’ll begin to dry out on Monday while enjoying some cooler temperatures.