Bottom line: we are outlooked at a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with the higher-end threat sitting east of I-65. Behind today’s front, the back half of the weekend and early next week turn cooler and wetter than we’ve been used to.

This Afternoon and Evening

A cold front is moving across Middle Tennessee. NWS-Nashville expects a line of storms to organize along and just ahead of the front as it crosses I-65 this afternoon into the early evening.

This means a chance of showers and thunderstorms before about 4 p.m., a high near 89, and heat index values up to 97 before temperatures fall back into the mid 80s. Southwest wind around 15 mph with gusts to 25. BUT!.. If storms set up west of us we could see greater impacts. That initiation is what we’re waiting for.

From NWS-Nashville’s key messages this morning:

There are medium to high chances for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly east of I-65, with a 2 out of 5 risk of damaging winds, some risk for flash-flooding, and also the possibility of an isolated weak tornado or two.

A couple of notes for us here in Davidson and Williamson:

• The stronger, more organized storms look most likely east of I-65. That puts the higher-end risk mostly to our east, but we’re right on the edge.
• This morning’s OHX sounding showed a precipitable water value of 2.36″ — a record for the date. Translation: the atmosphere is loaded with moisture, and any stronger storm that does fire can dump rain in a hurry. Watch for localized flash flooding in the usual spots.
• The tornado risk is low. A 2% area is off just to our east. The damaging wind risk for us is 5%.

Tonight the front moves through, skies go partly cloudy, and lows drop to around 69. Notably cooler air for August.

Here is the HRRR’s prediction. It holds the heaviest weather to our east.

Sunday and Monday — Cooler, Still Wet

Sunday looks unsettled but not severe. Showers and thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon (70% PoP), with a high only around 82 falling back into the upper 70s. Sunday night keeps a chance of storms before 1 a.m., low around 68.

Monday is more of the same theme: a slight chance of showers in the morning, then scattered showers and storms possible through the day, high near 83. Monday night drops to around 67 with patchy fog developing late.

NWS-Nashville is watching an upper low that looks like it will stall over East Tennessee for much of next week. That’s what keeps the low-end rain chances hanging around — and it’s also why temperatures stay below normal for early August.

Tuesday Through the End of the Week

Tuesday starts with patchy fog, then a chance of afternoon showers and storms, high near 86. Rain chances gradually taper Wednesday as the pattern begins to dry out and warm up — high near 90 Wednesday, low 90s Thursday and Friday under mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or storm is possible Friday afternoon, but nothing organized.

What to Do

• This afternoon and early evening, keep a way to get warnings on you if you’re outside — phone with alerts on, or a NOAA radio. If a warning is issued, get inside on the lowest floor, away from windows.
• If you’re east of I-65 today, the odds of a strong storm are higher. Plan around it.
• Don’t drive through flooded roads. With PWATs this high, a stalled downpour can cover a low spot fast.
• After tonight, the severe threat effectively ends. Next week is a rain-jacket-and-umbrella pattern, not a severe-weather pattern.

Could change, as usual. Stay connected.

Prepared Not Scared.