Another nice day in store. By last day of July standards, dewpoints will be comfortable in the low 60s, with highs temps “only” near 90°. No rain chances.

Saturday, not so much of a nice day as we kick off August.

We’ll likely start off the rain with showers and (non-severe) storms. HRRR gives an educated guess:

Again, no severe concerns with this, but could be a noisy start to your Saturday.

From mid-morning thru the early afternoon, we’ll likely see a break. At some point in the afternoon, storms will re-fire along a cold front. Exactly where these storms spark will dictate what we see.

Scenario 1 – Storms Form Off To Our East) Currently, this seems to be the most favored solution from models. Great news, but I’m not hanging my hat on this either. If storms from off to our east, we would see – nothing. We’d stay dry for the rest of our Saturday and deal with no rain/storms.

Scenario 2 – Storms Form On Top Of Us) With this, we’d probably see some rain/thunderstorms, but the severe threat would likely not come into play – as the storms just wouldn’t have enough time to get going. This would likely be sometime in the afternoon, move thru, then leave us with a dry rest of the day.

Scenario 3 – Storms Form To Our West) This would be the scenario we’d have to watch out for our low-end severe threat. With storms forming off to our west, they’d likely get enough time to get their act together, bringing the threat for damaging straight-line winds. The tornado threat appears very, very low – but not zero. This also appears to be the least likely scenario but doesn’t mean we should disregard it.

Hope for scenario 1, plan for scenario 3. Stay connected, especially those with outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon and evening. Additional data will come in, and things could start leaning towards another scenario.

FWIW, the morning run of the HRRR model favors Scenario 1, along with a good handful of high-res models.

The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook also follows the thinking of the better severe chances being off to our east. If we do see storms, damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat. The tornado threat appears to hold off to our NE, although we’ll keep an eye on that.

We’ll send out updates on all of our socials as needed. Things can certainly change! Current trends are good news but can also trend right back the other way.

Sunday begins our pattern of daily low to medium Wattery chances each afternoon/early evening thru at least the middle of next week. Not a fun pattern, but it’s still summer. Random popup showers and storms will be possible. Probably won’t see rain every day, but it’s not impossible. Not expecting any severe weather, but any storm could contain the usual heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.

Temperatures remain fairly seasonal, with highs near 90°. Humidity will be meh, with dewpoints in the upper 60s.