Dry Weekend, Next Rain (Storm?) Chance Tuesday

Not much going on today, drizzle will move out by lunch, but the clouds will likely hold on until around sunset. Cooler than average temps.

Sunday stays dry, nice clear day with temps back to around average. Monday is a repeat of this.

Next Rain Chance

Tuesday quite the potent system comes and gives us a chance for some rain, and maybe a lot of it.

We are currently not outlooked for any severe weather. This may change (the surface low could go farther north than expected, allowing instability and moisture to make it farther north, which would increase our chances for severe weather). We’ll keep a close eye on it but for now we look good. A significant severe weather event is shaping up across the Gulf Coast states south of us:

We are, however, outlooked for WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook on Tuesday.

Heavy rain is expected to move into our area sometime Tuesday, right now models are showing Tuesday evening. Storms may be strong, but as of now, are expected to stay below severe limits.

GFS is thinking this line may slow down around our area, raising the concern for flash flooding.

The timestamp is in the upper-left hand, but I wouldn’t pay much attention to specific timing, this is just a general sense of what might happen.

The GFS model and the WPC forecast show rainfall amounts around 2″ to 3″. We can handle that much if it is spread out over several hours. This above run of the GFS shows some pockets of 4″ to 5″, which would raise concern for flash flooding. Nailing down exactly where the heaviest rain might be is similar to trying to make a perfect bracket for March Madness (but we have a general idea, one of the top 3 seeds is most likely to win it).

Forecasts change. We will keep you updated as revisions come.

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