Dual-Threat of Flash Flooding/Severe Storms. Stay Connected Today/Tonight!
Saturday, March 27, 2021 · Patrick Moats
Join Us On YouTube Live!
The team from @NashSevereWx and @Tamachick are doing a YTL briefing about tonight’s potential severe weather and flash flooding event. Probs around 4:30ish. It will available on our YouTube channel immediately after if you can’t make it. Questions welcome in the YT chat. ^wm pic.twitter.com/Fz4uKTmPMm
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) March 27, 2021
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Storms this morning packed a punch with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and hail.
@NashSevereWx I was rudely awakened by hail. Thompson Station, 37179. pic.twitter.com/lDUJS99czr
— Hannah (@Hannah69216353) March 27, 2021
Current radar shows sub-severe rain over the area. Unfortunately, this will only exacerbate the flooding concerns.
HRRR Model below shows off and on showers this afternoon before perhaps a more substantial line of storms rolls through overnight.
Tornado Watch likely to be issued for southern Middle Tennessee by early afternoon. Unclear who will be included in it, if issued. Sun out + arrival of mid 60s dewpoints (now near TN state line) would indicate arrival of risk. pic.twitter.com/ScdKGaY8dN
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) March 27, 2021
New SPC severe probabilities of “x” within 25 miles of you are:
Tornado: 5-10%
Wind: 30% with some higher end gusts possible (70mph)
Hail: 15%
Keep in mind, these outlooks are valid until 7AM Sunday.
Timing for the most intense storms is roughly 9PM-2AM. This could change with newer data.
Here’s a more detailed graphic from NWS Nashville detailing the threats.
The biggest threat tonight could be the flash flooding potential.
We are under a flash flood watch until 7PM Sunday Evening.
WPC has placed Davidson/Williamson counties under a 20%-50% risk for excessive rain with 25 miles of you.
This is a heightened risk that needs to be taken seriously, especially if you live near a river/creak or in a flood-prone area.
HRRR Model puts widespread amounts of 3-5 inches with a heavier stripe of 6-7 inches through the middle of Williamson County.
Stay connected all day and have a way to receive warnings as this will be a nighttime event. A NOAA weather radio is excellent at waking you up should warnings be required. And never drive through a flooded roadway. Turn Around Don’t Drown