Tonight – Mostly Clear – High 87
The latest run of the HRRR model suggests it won’t rain tonight (4 PM – 10 PM, below).
Friday – Heavy Evening Rain – High 87
7a 69 . 10a 78 . 1p 85 . 4p 86 . 7p 82 . 10p 74
The morning looks dry. Clouds increase after lunch. Then comes the cold front, shoving heavy rain and maybe a few thunderstorms into Middle TN. Here’s the What and When:
What. Our NWS predicts 1.03″ rain through Saturday morning. We may see as much as 1.65″ through Saturday.
In addition, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us under a 5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of you:
The greatest threat with the storms will be an isolated strong gust of wind. No widespread damage severe weather event.
When. The consensus is after dark, but not every weather model agrees. Here, we ask three of the models (NAM, GFS, and Euro) for opinions:
The Hi-Res NAM model brings in the rain around mid-to-late afternoon. Friday 11 AM – 8 PM:
The GFS delivers the rain after dark, right around the time HS football and the Taylor Swift concert lets out. By 1 AM Saturday morning, the GFS puts the rain here (moving east):
The European model agrees with the GFS; if anything, it sends the rain in later. (We liberated Europe from the Nazis, but they won’t let me post images of their model data).
So, which model is right? The NAM model looks to be too eager to move this front it. When the GFS and Euro generally agree, that’s usually the better forecast. The best chance of rain is while we sleep Friday night / Saturday morning, but stay tuned to Twitter (@NashSevereWx) for updates. Plan on rain tomorrow night. We’ll post HRRR updates through the day to help you plan.
Saturday – Rain Clearing By Noon – High 78
7a 68 . 10a 73 . 1p 77 . 4p 78 . 7p 72 . 10p 63
It will still be raining early Saturday morning, but we should be clearing out after noon. The cold front won’t dramatically slash temps, but we will cool to average, and enjoy another shot of drier air.
Sunday – Clear & Sunny Titans Game – High 78
Will be gorgeous – definitely the day to make outdoor plans. Titans weather looks great: 75 at kickoff, light north breeze, 72 on the way home.
Categories: Forecast Blogs