Current Temps and Radar
Tonight – Rain and Some Thunderstorms
You can see by the above radar that the rain is approaching. Expect it to start falling within the next hour and hang with us this evening:
Some storms are possible with this round of rain, though the severe risk is “general thunderstorms,” i.e. not something to be worried about.
The big issue is rain messing with your evening plans, which it probably will, if those plans are outdoors.
Things will stay very wet overnight.
SATURDAY – Wet Country Music Marathon & Afternoon Severe Potential – Wake Up: 56º, High: 80º
Friday evening’s rain will still be around for the start of the Country Music Marathon. Here’s the simulated radar at start time:
Looks like a mess. The concern here will be morning thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain:
We’ll keep you updated on Twitter. For updates from the CMM itself, see this link: http://runrocknroll.com/nashville/news/2015/04/2015-country-music-weather-updates/
We’ll get a break in the late morning. But, as David mentioned yesterday, round 2 brings higher potential for severe weather.
Here’s the traditional SPC outlook for Saturday, which has us in an ENHANCED risk:
Here is the probabilistic outlook, which breaks the severe risk down into percentages:
You’ll notice we’re in that red hatched area. The red alone means a 30% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of us, but the hatching (black lines) adds the threat of “significant” severe weather within 25 miles of us.
SPC has brought us more towards the dividing line between enhanced and slight since this morning, but don’t think too much about that. It could change again by tomorrow.
Bottom line: prepare for severe weather tomorrow.
We’re expecting storms to fire up in the afternoon due to the heat of the day as well as increasing moisture as the winds turn to the SW.
This afternoon’s models are trending toward ending the rain sooner tomorrow morning (10 AM or so), which would add extra daytime heat. That could enhance the storms a bit. It’s something to watch, and you can bet we will be doing just that.
Additionally, the leftover energy from the morning storms will help to spawn some super cells. NWS stated in this morning’s forecast discussion: “THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTER IN TERMS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITIONING INTO SUPER CELLS,” meaning it will be a day to be alert.
While the severe parameters have remained largely unchanged (i.e. they are still there), NWS has bumped up the risks for winds, hail, and tornadoes from where they were this morning:
Forecast soundings by 1 PM are supportive of severe thunderstorms, with large hail and strong winds being the biggest concern. Hail is especially concerning: shelter your stuff if you don’t want to risk it getting dinged up.
By 4 PM, severe parameters will be a bit higher. They’ll be high enough that tornadoes will also become more of a concern.
Take some time out of your evening and have a plan ready for tomorrow. As of this afternoon, it’s looking like there won’t be a flock of super cells out there tomorrow, but there may be several. It only takes one getting its act together for things to change fast. If that happens, we want everyone to be ready. We’ve got your back.
We’ll keep you updated as things progress.
Sunday – Clearing Out – Wake Up: 57º, High: 70º
Some lingering rain is expected in the morning, but then things clear up nicely for the rest of your weekend.
Extended:
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
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