Severe Weather Possible Tuesday

Current Radar

As I write this, a cold front is taking shape in the midwest. Meanwhile, shortwave energy can be seen over the northern Rocky Mountains. Both are moving southeast, and will be here tomorrow.

Things may get bumpy.

That cold front will show up sometime tomorrow afternoon. Before that, heavy rain, and strong-to-severe storms, will be possible.

What Exactly

A broken line of storms, with maybe some supercells mixed in. These will be most capable of producing damaging straight-line winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

When

There should be rain in the morning, but we expect it’ll be scattered.  Rain coverage and intensity will increase during the day as temps remain unseasonably warm.

Current ETA range for the severe stuff is 11 AM to 4 PM. I think we’re in the middle of that window. Consult multiple reliable sources for weather information, and remember this ETA will need a couple of adjustments later tonight and tomorrow.

I’m planning to vote early. With early afternoon storms, rain continuing into the evening, and increasing winds, running into a school or fire station or where-ever you vote will be more difficult later in the day. Get in early, avoid the bad weather, then wear your I VOTED sticker around all day. Just try not to be smug about it.

Am I Worried About It?

It has my attention. SPC has us in its “Slight Risk” category. That’s a misleading term. Think of it as a 2 on a scale of 0 to 5.

There’s decent, but not “OH NO!” shear. CAPE/instability is on the weak side, but it’s there. Ingredients right along the front look pretty good for severe weather. All that to say this: I don’t think this will be a widespread severe weather event, but that will be no consolation if it happens to you. So, pay attention. Continue your civics-high from morning-voting. We’ll be live-tweeting whatever happens all day.

You won’t have [outdoor sport] practice tomorrow night. Rain totals between 0.5″ and 1″ will see to that, and it’ll still be raining in the evening. With winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH and temps cratering from 65° at 3 PM, to 57° at 6 PM, to 47° by 9 PM, you won’t want to be outside anyway.

As the rain pulls away late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there’s a possibility it’ll briefly change to snow. Hopefully you’ll be asleep if/when it does. Neither travel impacts nor accumulation expected.

Reality Returns Wednesday-Friday

Tuesday’s cold front will end our stretch of awesome temps.

Rain is likely Thursday, but we think it’ll move off and to allow time to dry out for weekend activities.

Glorious Weekend?

Yeah, we think so. Low to mid 60°s, with nothing in the models threatening the fun. I expect awesome weather for Sunday’s US Women’s National Team game at Nissan Stadium. I’ll be there, trying to avoid sunburn.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Super Rainy (& Stormy) Super Tuesday Update

Current Radar

Today – Sunny High: 65°

The system to our north over the Great Lakes has brought some clouds in our area this morning. Clouds will move out of the area then expect plenty of sunshine today. Enjoy it!

g13.2016060.1415_MGM_vis

The current surface analysis shows last night’s weak cold front has passed (as expected). Temperatures will continue to climb this afternoon into the mid 60s.

namussfcwbg

The big story is super Tuesday. This when our next rain-maker will move in.

Super Tuesday – Showers and Thunderstorms High: 67° — Vote Early

The Storm Prediction Center has updated the severe weather outlook and we are now included in a slight risk for Tuesday.

TN_swody2

A surface low will move over the Ohio River Valley from the west. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through Tuesday afternoon. Our temperatures ahead of a strong cold front will reach the upper 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s across our area.

There will be enough instability for some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main threat with this system will be damaging winds. As the front approaches in the afternoon, there will be a fairly tight pressure gradient at the surface, meaning it will be pretty windy. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 mph from lunchtime into the late afternoon.

The tornado threat will be low… Close to zero. Winds will be out of the southwest at the surface as the system approaches our area. Not enough turning with height in the atmosphere.

Timing:

The Euro has the rain moving in around lunchtime. Then the heavy rain moves in during the late afternoon into the evening.

The NAM 4 km has isolated showers and thunderstorms moving in ahead of major band of rain during the morning commute.

tuesday 6 am

Models agree there will be rain in our area during lunchtime. It is a good idea to eat inside.

tuesday 12 pm

 

gfs tues 12 pmThe cold front will pass through late afternoon. The cold air will start filtering in and temperatures will tumble into the low to mid 30s overnight. This is when we see a line of showers and thunderstorms in our area. Damaging winds will be the main threat when this line moves through.

colder air tuesday 6 pm nam tempsgfs tues 6 pm

As the colder air filters in, light snow may begin to mix with showers around midnight. Most of the wintry mix will stay to our east on the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will remain above the freezing mark so no accumulation is expected.

Wednesday – Colder! High: 44°

Clouds will gradually decrease during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s across the area. You will see some sunshine as high pressure builds in after the system.

Winds will be out of the northwest then shift to out of the south once again. The surface high pressure moving east over our area will influence our wind flow.

Extended

More rain will move in later this week. An upper level shortwave will swing through late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty with the track of the low at the surface. However, there will be rain moving in during the early afternoon on Thursday. We will keep you updated on details of Thursday’s system. 

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Super Rainy Super Tuesday

Current Radar

A Little Rain Late Tonight

Around or after midnight, a little trough will try and shove in some light rain.  The atmosphere is really dry near the surface, and this rainer looks pretty weak, so we aren’t expecting it to alter any outdoor activities Monday.

Monday, the rain should be long gone well before morning rush hour,and the rest of Monday looks dry: 47° early, high 66°.

Super Rainy Super Tuesday

Expect a rotten weather day for the primaries.

The models aren’t in agreement on timing, but they think we will get soaked. The Euro model brings the rain in Tuesday and out early Wednesday morning. The GFS brings it in mid-day Tuesday and lingers precip (see below) through the day Wednesday. Either way, we think it’ll be pouring Tuesday afternoon and evening, but as always, when the models don’t agree, don’t wager heavily on the ETAs. We think this will be a half-inch of rain through Tuesday night.

With a surface low passing to our NW and us sitting on the warm side of the storm, thunderstorms are possible Tuesday. Euro expects there will be some CAPE (storm fuel), but the GFS doesn’t. Severe weather dynamics don’t look impressive, but there’s enough there to warrant the Storm Prediction Center to include us in its 5% probability for severe weather Tuesday. Damaging winds and hail would be possible.

When Will We Stop Having to Mention Snow Chances?

Not this week.

As Tuesday’s rain system tries pulling away Wednesday, both the Euro and GFS models suggest cold air will race in just before the rain ends, and change some of it to sleet or snow very early Wednesday morning. Here’s the GFS (we aren’t allowed to show the Euro):

We do not think this will be a big deal because (1) the ground will be very warm, and (2) despite super-cold temps aloft, surface temps won’t dip below freezing. Anything that falls should quickly melt, then the precip will have moved east and the sun will come racing out.

When the rain ends, colder air will race in. Highs in the mid/upper 60°s Tuesday will be cut by about 20° Wednesday, when the high is only 48°.

More rain is possible Thursday, with yet another unimpressive chance of snow. Drier air is expected by the weekend.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Great Weekend. Terrible Post.

Current Radar

This Weekend – Awesome – High 61 Today, High 68

There’s high pressure in charge, so that’ll mean awesome weekend weather. Warm, too?

Next Week — Rainy

There’s a chance of light rain late Sunday night into Monday, but the system looks kinda weak, and it won’t squeeze out much rain. Maybe a few drops Monday morning.

Tuesday, however, is a different story. The models differ a bit on the timing, but the rain is expected throughout the day Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible, but we don’t think it’ll be a strong or severe event. The GFS model (below) has it coming into Tuesday night, but the Euro has it arriving earlier, and the expectation is that the GFS may eventually cave in to the Euro’s earlier ETA.

This is a terrible website update. I’m writing from Severe Weather Awareness Day and, ironically, I don’t have all the stuff I need to do a better job.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Awesome Weekend Ahead

Current Radar

Saturday – Much Warmer – Early 33°, High: 61°

Winds will quickly shift from out of the north to out of the south as the high pressure moves over our area.

We will be just on the fringe of the cold air mass Saturday morning.

The southerly winds will help us warm up during the afternoon.

Expect plenty of sunshine on Saturday.

Sunday – Pleasant – Early 40°, High 68°

Temperatures will warm up into the upper 60°s with some areas hitting the low 70°s in the afternoon. There will be a shortwave moving over our area late on Sunday.

What this means for us is just a weak cold front will drift through late afternoon into the evening. You will feel the winds pick up a bit int he afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. The reason is for this tight pressure gradient over us.

windy

A low will move over the Great Lakes with high pressure to our east. Clouds will gradually increase late afternoon into the overnight.

We will see some showers during the late afternoon into morning commute on Monday. The rain should be tapering off to east by the morning commute, but you can’t rule out a few isolated showers still in our area.

Extended: Temperatures will drop off slightly on Monday under a mostly sunny sky. The main concern will be our next rainmaker expected to bring thunderstorms early Tuesday. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in our area Tuesday. This could limit the severe weather threat for us, however we will keep you updated on this. Model updates have tampered with the track of the low each day. Right now it shows the the low tracking through Missouri and Illinois then over the Ohio River Valley. If we get warmer temperatures and higher dew points with a track more southeasterly then this could be more of a severe weather threat. We will keep you updated on this next system. Until then – enjoy the nice weekend weather!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Plot Twist: Warming Trend

Current Radar

Today – Mostly Sunny High: 48°

After all that nonsense last night, we are ready for a warm, sunny weekend!

There are just a few clouds in our area, but they will clear out throughout the day.

g13.2016057.1645_MGM_vis

High pressure will move in and keep us dry today. Temperatures will only reach the upper 40°s today, due to the cold air advection from our northerly winds. Hang in there, though. Temperatures will then rebound into the upper 50°s by Saturday!

namussfcwbg

Saturday – Much Warmer High: 59°

Winds will quickly shift from out of the north to out of the south as the high pressure moves over our area.

We will be just on the fringe of the cold air mass Saturday morning.

NAM Saturday 9 am

The southerly winds will help us warm up during the afternoon.

Expect plenty of sunshine on Saturday.

Sunday – Pleasant High: 68°

Temperatures will warm up into the upper 60°s with some areas hitting the low 70°s in the afternoon. There will be a shortwave moving over our area late on Sunday.

What this means for us is just a weak cold front will drift through late afternoon into the evening. You will feel the winds pick up a bit int he afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. The reason is for this tight pressure gradient over us.

windy

A low will move over the Great Lakes with high pressure to our east. Clouds will gradually increase late afternoon into the overnight.

We will see some showers during the late afternoon into morning commute on Monday. The rain should be tapering off to east by the morning commute, but you can’t rule out a few isolated showers still in our area.

Extended: Temperatures will drop off slightly on Monday under a mostly sunny sky. The main concern will be our next rainmaker expected to bring thunderstorms early Tuesday. Dew points will be in the low to mid 50s with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in our area Tuesday. This could limit the severe weather threat for us, however we will keep you updated on this. Model updates have tampered with the track of the low each day. Right now it shows the the low tracking through Missouri and Illinois then over the Ohio River Valley. If we get warmer temperatures and higher dew points with a track more southeasterly then this could be more of a severe weather threat. We will keep you updated on this next system. Until then – enjoy the nice weekend weather!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A dusting? Blerg.

Current Radar

Dusting Tonight?

The sleet, rain, and snow mix has been amusing today, only because it was melting on contact. Temps have been hovering around 40° all day.

We expected this nonsense to have stopped by sundown.

But it hasn’t, and now we have to account for the possibility of a dusting.

At 3:47 PM, NWS-Nashville issued a Special Weather Statement on this:

One or two tenths of an inch. That’s a dusting…barely.

A strong shortwave will move through tonight, switching ON the pockets of sleet, snow, and rain we thought would have already been turned OFF.

Meanwhile, temps will be dropping, and will have to be watched closely. Officially, we expect 35° by 9 PM, 34° by midnight, and 32° by 3 AM. For about 4 or 5 hours after 3 AM, we’ll be just below, or at, freezing. Again, we’ll have to watch this, as there might be a brief window tonight where some stuff might stick.

Grassy surfaces, bridges/overpasses, areas at elevation (Joelton, 840 near Fairview, to name a few), decks, windshields, mailboxes, and garden gnomes are most vulnerable.

Factors which lower our blood pressure include:

(1) The HRRR model shuts off the precip by midnight, during which time we expect to be just above freezing here in Davidson/Williamson:

(2) Road temps should still be warm. The most reliable gauge we have is at the Franklin KY mesonet site, which as I write this shows almost a 5° spread between the air (38.0°) and pavement (42.7°). You can monitor that sensor here.  The roads will not be too kind to this falling precip. The air will be colder than the pavement.

After sunrise, air temps are expected to rise above freezing, initiating a warm up for the weekend ahead.

So, yeah, maybe a dusting in spots. Take care if driving tonight and in the wee hours of the morning, especially on bridges/overpasses, and at elevation. Be wary of black ice. We aren’t expecting a big deal, but we will watch this closely tonight. Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather information, and plan on doing normal stuff tomorrow.

Excellent Weekend Ahead

Back to Bleh Next Week

A system in the upper midwest may drive in some rain as early as Sunday night, but more likely on Monday and Tuesday. The models don’t really agree on the timing or amount, so stay tuned on that.

The big weather story will be another potent storm system arriving in the middle of the week. It looks almost identical to the recently-departed system that brought us rain (with severe weather to the south and east). ETA is Wednesday — the GFS has it earlier in the day, the Euro has it later in the day — but both models show a strong system.

What’s that mean for us? Providing specifics this far away is intellectually dishonest. Generally, we can expect rain and the possibility of strong storms Wednesday, and maybe some light/little impact wrap-around snow on Thursday. As alert readers here know, all this is variable. The ability of the models to translate a forecast into actionable information this far away is poor.

Will do.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Weekend Ahead, Watching Another System Wednesday

Current Radar

Off & On Light Rain & Flurries Today

And maybe some sleet, too.

A little shortwave coming around the back side of the departed storm system will lift up some clouds and send us scattered, light, off and on (mostly “off”) rain, sleet, and snow showers today. As usual, the HRRR illustrates this for us:

Surface temps will remain way over freezing, so no travel or other winter impacts are a concern.

The wet stuff will gradually end tonight. Today’s high is only 43°.

Excellent Weekend Ahead

Back to Bleh Next Week

A system in the upper midwest may drive in some rain as early as Sunday night, but more likely on Monday and Tuesday. The models don’t really agree on the timing or amount, so stay tuned on that.

The big weather story will be another potent storm system arriving in the middle of the week. It looks almost identical to the recently-departed system that brought us rain (with severe weather to the south and east). ETA is Wednesday — the GFS has it earlier in the day, the Euro has it later in the day — but both models show a strong system.

What’s that mean for us? Providing specifics this far away is intellectually dishonest. Generally, we can expect rain and the possibility of strong storms Wednesday, and maybe some light/little impact wrap-around snow on Thursday. As alert readers here know, all this is variable. The ability of the models to translate a forecast into actionable information this far away is poor.

Will do.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Umbrella Rage Leads to Sunny Days

Current Radar

Headlines:

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A few heavier rain pockets and even a few rumbles of thunder are occurring northwest of Davidson county. This activity should pull away to the north and east as a larger low pressure system traverses Tennessee and into the Ohio Valley.

HRRR 7am – 8pm Today

HRRR

Dropping to 35° Tonight…

 

Yes, I know, we are all tired of the rain by now. But if you can make it through until the weekend, there is some nicer weather in store!

You may hear the “s” word on local media or see it on your smartphone app, but don’t worry about it causing any problems in the Metro. Yes, there is the chance we could see snow as temperatures fall tonight, but nothing more than a light to moderate steady snow that will not have a chance to stick. Grassy surfaces will even be tough to retain the white powder, just because temperatures have been above freezing as of recent. Here’s the NAM and its forecast:

NAM 3pm Today – 9am Thursday

nam wed and thu am

Thursday, High 43 / Low 29:

As the light snow showers hang around for a good portion of the daylight hours Thursday, temperatures will struggle to make the 40 degree mark. Winds will die down to a meager 5-10mph from the west.

We stay cloudy for much of the day and lows Thursday night will probably sneak into the upper 20s for outlying areas. This, in part to clouds pulling away from Nashville early Friday morning. Clearer skies translates to cooler temperatures (generally speaking, for nighttime hours).

Like this one and the ninety-nine other dalmatians, the warmth will be a welcomed feeling come Friday…but any substantial warmth will have to wait until later into the weekend.

Friday, High 47 / Low 31:

The good news…sunshine returns! With a large dome of high pressure settling into our region, however, “Mr. Great Ball of Fire” will have to earn his way with temperatures only making it to the upper 40s by Friday afternoon. Just a few clouds will scoot on by and a light westerly breeze at 5mph will keep any wind chill factor out of the picture, for the most part.

Friday night, a few clouds will hang around with a low in the lower 30s.

Weekend Preview

Saturday skies will clear out even more, leaving room for temperatures to climb into the middle and upper 50s for much of Davidson and Williamson counties.

Sunday, though, looks to be the pick day of the weekend. Soaring sixties are in the forecast! Look for highs in the middle and maybe even upper 60s.

A roller coaster pattern continues…jackets today, shorts on Sunday! Enjoy.

-Brendan

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Messy Next 48 Hours

Current Radar

Well if you are one of those people who likes to see the weather change rapidly, you are in for an interesting next 24-48 hours.

To begin, the Flood Advisory for the Stones River (due to Percy Priest Dam release) remains in effect until 6 PM.

Then there is this:

Hazardous Weather Outlook 2.23.16

The main concern is into the later evening hours, around 9 pm on, where there is a potential for isolated severe storms mainly south of I-40. There is also potential for a few flash floods as the heavy downpour enters our area.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning there is a slight potential for some snow to mix in with the rain.

Tuesday into Tonight HIGH 59 LOW 54

The cloud cover will remain throughout the morning into the early afternoon hours.

Rain should begin around 4-5 pm this afternoon. Once the showers start they will remain off and on until the main event later this evening. Isolated severe weather is a concern into the evening hours, but the majority of the strong storms should remain to our south. There is also the possibility of some flash flooding, but nothing widespread. Heavy downpours are possible throughout the night as the system passes through our area. With this downpour brings the potential of areas picking up lots of rain very quickly. If you do see any type of flooding DO NOT try to pass through. Winds this evening will be between 15-25 mph.

Below shows the rain approaching our area around 4-5pm and continuing throughout the evening hours.

Wednesday Outlook HIGH 51 LOW 37

And the rain continues. Expect to keep your umbrella handy throughout the day. While there isn’t any severe potential with the rain, our area has seen a lot of it recently so there could be a few places of localized flooding in low lying areas.

The rain will continue throughout the day and lighten up as we approach the late afternoon, early evening, hours. The wind is expected to act up some today with winds remaining between 20-30 mph.

The back side of the system that will move through Tuesday evening will bring some cooler weather to our area. The high will be reached in the morning and temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day.

Wednesday night there will still be some rain with the SLIGHT potential of snow mixing in. Since our temperatures have been and will remain above freezing, I do not expect any of it to stick, but it may be fun to watch it fall. Any snow that comes will be a slight dusting at best. The low for tomorrow night is 35°.

Fake Snow GIF 2

Thursday into the weekend

Thursday we may see some of the little snow mix in the early morning hours which will change into some light showers into the early afternoon. Cloud cover will remain throughout the day after that. Thursday and Friday will remain pretty cold with the high being 42° on Thursday and 46° on Friday. Both Thursday and Friday night our lows are down below freezing so be aware of freeze potential Thursday and Friday night. Once the weekend hits there should be lots of sunshine with temperatures climbing into the 60°s

What does this mean for you

Stay aware of the severe thunderstorm potential into tonight. While we should just see the occasional non-severe thunderstorm, things can change throughout the day. Continue to monitor the snowfall potential into Wednesday night. While there may be some snow falling, it isn’t expected to accumulate. Thursday will be cold and rainy in the AM, eventually becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Friday will still be a bit chilly but the sun will come out which will hopefully warm things up a bit. This weekend appears to be full of sunshine and no rain.

Sound of Music GIF 2

Here is the outlook for the rest of the week:

Outlook 2.23.16

-Intern Applicant: Caroline MacDonald