I’ll dodge your questions now

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Dreary, Overcast, Drizzly Few Days Ahead

Because an area of low pressure way up in the air will become a “closed low.”   That means dreary days ahead.

Thursday night, the closed low emerges! Here’s the GFS model:

Rain chances are low but real. Most of the rain should fall east of us (on the plateau), but we’re in line for some light rain, but no more than 0.10″ Thursday and again on Friday.

That closed low is going to drop some rain on SEC games this weekend.

Fall temps are fast arriving. The dry air is approaching thanks to north winds at 10-15 mph. With overcast skies, it’ll start to feel colder than our highs of 68° Thursday, 62° Friday, and 62° Saturday.

What About The Weekend?

I will now dodge your questions!

Models agree on the dreary forecast…until Saturday afternoon. The dispute: how will our closed low interact with Joaquin?

The models are split on this. We think it’ll still be overcast with a chance of light rain, although nothing significant.

NWS shuts off the rain chances for Sunday, but honestly, y’all, the models are so all over the place with Joaquin, we can’t really say. Officially:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Muggy Today with Isolated Showers

Current Radar


Our temperature will climb to 72° this afternoon under a cloudy sky. Dew points will continue to stay in the muggy 60s throughout the day.

g13.2015273.1545_smMGM_vis

Some isolated showers will be passing through later this afternoon.

hires_ref_nashville_12

It also looks like the winds will be a bit breezy ranging from 10 to 15 mph.

There is a bright side after all this dreariness! A cold front is expected to sweep through later today dropping our dew points down into the upper 50s by Thursday afternoon.

namussfcwbg

The high temperature on Thursday will only reach 68°! Even though the temperature will drop, the clouds will stick around for the next couple of days. Sad face.

Winds will still be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Drier air will begin to filter in Thursday late afternoon into the evening.

GFS Thur

By the time you wake up on Friday, it will feel a bit chilly. The temperature will be in the low 50s along with those dew points in the low to mid 50s.

NAM Fri Morning

 

Still expecting mostly cloudy conditions for Friday with a high temperature of 65°. Models are showing a complex of showers moving in from the east on Thursday evening. Showers stay in the area through the overnight into Friday morning. We will keep you updated on the rain on Friday.

Extended: There is a cooling trend into Saturday with isolated showers moving through the weekend. We will see peeks of sunshine on Sunday while the dry air hangs with us through the weekend.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rainy-ish Today & Tomorrow…Better by Thursday

Current Radar

This Evening – 74° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:34 PM 

‘Humid & cloudy & kinda warm, but kinda cool’ will be the scenario as we head into the evening.

Models keep just a few showers around this evening:

Judging by current radar, I’d say rain chances are pretty low.

A cold front approaching from the NW will keep most of the rain off to our north.

Maybe a few sprinkles here and there while you’re sleeping. Still good sleeping weather.

TOMORROW – Early Birds: 67°, High: 72°

Sunrise: 6:41 AM

Aforementioned front will be moving-through tomorrow morning, bring yet another chance for rain to start the day:

Models have kinda backed off on morning showers, but I wouldn’t leave the umbrella at home.

The front won’t do much for our temperatures right out of the gate…

In fact, all it will really do for us tomorrow is keep a low chance of rain in our forecast. It will be another day to keep your umbrella within reach.

THURSDAY – Early Birds: 59°, High: 71°

By Thursday, the GFS thought we would be able to start drying off…

Looks like GFS may be wrong.

There will likely be another upper-level disturbance in the vicinity keeping a chance of annoying spotty showers in the forecast:

 

We’ll will, however, start to feel the drier, cooler air move-in behind tomorrow’s front.

The end of the week looks okay. It’ll even feel a bit like fall….

Extended: Peeks of Sun. Low Chances for Rain. 

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Here Comes Rain

Current Radar

If you looped the radar at 304 PM, you saw one batch of showers move NE, the other NW, because why not.

As Meagan wrote this morning, rain is coming tonight. Moisture from an upper low and a surface low in the Gulf is surging north.

HRRR has rain increasing late tonight, possibly arriving late enough to allow us to get in early evening ball games. Note the time stamp in the upper right:

Notice how the rain seems to be dodging us until later tonight, then it turns into a full on soaker in the wee hours of Tuesday morning.

Very Rainy Tuesday, High 76°

This afternoon, NWS-Nashville wrote that the GFS and Euro models think we’ll see precipitable water tables at 1.8′ and rain totals through Tuesday night of 2″.

Yeah, no.

NWS-Nashville swiftly dismissed that idea. 0.75″ is more like it. The reason: lack of synoptic support. There’s not a LLJ in place to enhance low level converg…

The QPF reflects NWS-Nashville’s thinking. This depicts the amount of rain (in inches) we will be receiving today through Wednesday morning.

So, look for less than an inch, but it’ll still be wet. Really wet.

The high temperature will be slightly cooler due to overcast skies – topping out at 76°.

Dew points will be in the hairdo ruiner stage.

CGxIZV5W0AAKayE

Most of the rain will fall during the morning and early afternoon. Outdoor activities Tuesday night look unlikely.

Minor flooding isn’t being ruled out, but it’s not expected.

BTW, thunderstorms are possible, but unlikely. Just don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder.

A cold front is expected to pass through Wednesday morning. The winds will pick up a bit on Wednesday morning into lunchtime, ranging from 10 to 15 mph. There will not be a huge difference in dew points on Wednesday though. They will stay in the upper 60s throughout the day with a high of 74°. There will be a few isolated post-frontal drizzlers on Wednesday, but the chance will quickly decrease late afternoon into the evening.

You will really feel a difference by Thursday morning after the cold front. The drier air will begin to filter its way into the area with winds out of the north really bringing in the drier air.  Less humidity is on the way with a cooling trend as we end the week.

Models diverge significantly for the weekend, with the Euro lingering a chance of light rain, and the GFS keeping us dry. NWS-Nashville likes the drier solution. (The Euro model has been having a bad week.)

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Muggy Monday With Rain On The Way

Current Radar

It will be a muggy Monday under a mostly cloudy. The high temperature will climb to 81° this afternoon with a dew point in the sticky upper 60s.

The surface low that is currently in the Gulf of Mexico is pumping in lots of moisture into our area today.

g13.2015271.1345_smMGM_vis

The HRRR model predicts a large complex of showers with some thunderstorms moving north. But, notice how it doesn’t want to form much/any rain over us.

Here is what the NAM4 model has after lunchtime:

hires_ref_nashville_10

Showers will continue throughout the afternoon into the evening hours. Take it easy on the work commute.

hires_ref_nashville_17

For tonight, we may hear a few rumbles of thunder. Moisture from the low in the Gulf will continue to move in while an upper level low will help development of thunderstorms through the overnight. None will be strong or severe, but overnight heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely.

The QPF shows the amount of rain (in inches) we will be receiving today through Tuesday night.  We are expected about an inch here in Nashville with some locally heavier amounts.

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Tuesday Looks Dreary

The high temperature will be slightly cooler due to overcast skies – topping out at 78°.

Dew points will be in the hairdo ruiner stage.

CGxIZV5W0AAKayE

The morning commute looks like a wet one as the complex of showers continues to push north over our area. The models show the complex of showers over us during the morning commute. It looks like there will not be a break in the rain until the late evening on Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The winds will pick up a bit on Wednesday morning into lunchtime, ranging from 10 to 15 mph. There will not be a huge difference in dew points on Wednesday though. They will stay in the upper 60s throughout the day with a high of 75°. There will be a few isolated showers on Wednesday, but the chance will quickly decrease late afternoon into the evening.

You will really feel a difference by Thursday morning after the cold front. The drier air will begin to filter its way into the area with winds out of the north really bringing in the drier air.

Here is your extended forecast: The sun will return on Thursday with awesome conditions! Less humidity is on the way with a cooling trend as we end the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

More Tropical Moisture Arriving

Current Radar

Eclipse viewing looks poor tonight, although we may see a few breaks in the clouds.

We may see rain arrive after midnight, but models think it’ll break up upon arrival.

TROPICAL SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN, High Monday 81°

Check out the system coming our way from the south:

Our NWS forecasts cloud cover all day Monday. The models aren’t much help regarding rain timing. HRRR has a nice soaking rain in the morning. NAM4 holds that off until Monday night. Other models are a mess, so we’ll probably only see a few passing showers, but forecast confidence on this isn’t very good.

Rain is likely Tuesday (high 81°), when better rain/storm moisture should be arriving. 

This should be a soaker, but not a flooder. For the first time in a while, thunderstorms are possible:

Severe weather doesn’t really look likely.

Rain chances should slowly wind down Wednesday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Not Shaking The Rain Anytime Soon

Current Radar

CLOUDY, A LITTLE MORE RAIN TODAY, High 80°

It’s been a soggy few days. Even though we’re not yet done with the rain, I feel a liiiiitle bit better about today.

Yesterday’s mid/upper level low (which created the rain) has moved north and washed out. Today there’s another system in the northern Gulf of Mexico coming our way:

The latest run of the HRRR model has very few, tiny showers coming up from Alabama:

We don’t see any downpours in the HRRR model, but the NAM4 model thinks we may see a small downpour at 5 PM:

Yesterday 0.50″ of rain fell in the official gauge at the airport, wildly exceeding expectations, but most community gauges only saw between 0.10″ and 0.20″. Today, we expect half that.

No lightning or high winds expected today.

Colts at Titans, Noon, & Pilgrimage All Day

Expect 78° and overcast/broken skies. I would pack/purse a poncho for the Titans and for Pilgrimage.

 

Supermoon Eclipse

I don’t think we will get to see it. HRRR model has us completely overcast:

The NAM4 model is trying to clear us out, but if the model verifies, we’ll be obstructed.

THE WORK WEEK: MORE RAIN

Deeper moisture will arrive from the Gulf of Mexico. That’ll increase rain chances Monday and especially Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday, and maybe even “likely” Tuesday. Severe weather looks unlikely.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

No Washouts This Weekend, Have Rain Gear Within Reach

Current Radar

LIGHT, OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY

It doesn’t look too bad to be outside.

It’ll be overcast all day, for sure. High only 73°.

Current conditions:

There will be at least a little rain, but it should be the light, even drizzly variety.

HRRR model seems to have a good handle on this:

Let me zoom that in a little more:

The bulk of the heavier rain stays east. Then a few light drizzlers pop up this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast all weekend.

Have an umbrella/rain jacket close by, and remember, the high is only 73°, so dress accordingly. Lots of stuff happening outside this Saturday. Enjoy it.

RAIN ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY, High 79°

Fog will reduce visibility in the pre-dawn hours.

The low pressure system should have pulled far enough north of us to substantially reduce our rain chances. Although clouds will still be around and there remains a chance of a passing shower, Sunday will be the driest day of the Friday/Saturday/Sunday group.

Titans kickoff: 77°, light SE winds, small chance of a quickly passing random light shower.

Supermoon Eclipse

I’m a little more encouraged, but I don’t feel good about being able to see it. Although the cloud-creating low is pulling out, and the NAM4 model shows some breaks in the clouds by 7 PM …

… I just don’t think we’ll get there. Here’s cloud cover at 7 PM via the GFS model:

So, maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but it will likely make for a frustrating, but probably impossible, viewing.

Next Week: Chance of Thunderstorms Returns

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Update!

Current Radar

LIGHT, INTERMITTENT RAIN TONIGHT

At the risk of making too many analogies, the upper level low is, as I write this, spinning in a Reverse Sherman — working its way from Atlanta to Chattanooga.

The NW quadrant of the low is producing Crazy Ivan showers, all in compliance with what the models said they’d do, which is refreshing. Showers will continue off and on, working from east to west, before probably reducing in coverage later tonight.

Here’s how HRRR thinks the evening and wee hours will go:

Notice that last frame, at 5 AM, more showers filling the queue in east Tennessee. Those may spin on in here, but we’ll need to switch models to get an idea for Saturday.

LITTLE MORE RAIN SATURDAY Wake Up 62° High 77°

The NAM4 model spreads a few waves of 60-to-90-minute-long light showers throughout the day.

The HRW-N&A models spread even less rain, off and on (mostly off), throughout the day. The GFS is following this drier trend.

Officially, NWS has us down for 0.16″ of rain through 7 PM Saturday, which is more than those last two models suggest. For good reason – the last frame of that HRRR model suggests more precip will be coming than HRW/GFS models suggest.

Some areas will get more rain than others, but right now the scattered/broken presentation of the rain is such that pinpointing a location for more/less is a waste of time. So is trying to get rain on/rain off times correct for tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy, and occassionally rainy. I’m planning on soccer and baseball and Pilgrimage, and you should too.

I’ll get up at an hour God designed for sleep to check the radar and HRRR, in hopes of catching this greased pig of a rain forecast.

LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

The rainy pattern will remain, but it should be winding down Sunday. This should be the driest of the three days.

Be ready for a little more rain if you’re Titans tailgating.

Supermoon Eclipse

Sunday night, y’all.

I’m still concerned about clouds obstructing Supermoonmania. Even more concerned than I was last night. Maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but ugh, I’m not happy about this, space fans.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Light Rain Starts This Afternoon

Current Radar

RAIN TODAY High: 77°

Check out the radar above, and the water vapor below. Behold the swirl to our southeast.

It’s going to rain a little this afternoon and tonight.

HRRR thinks the rain will arrive by mid/late afternoon.

This is nuisance, intermittent rain, but it’s probably enough to pull your elementary school palooza indoors, and wear the longer cleats for HS football. Gather umbrellas and rain jackets if outside tonight, but do not expect a lot of rain.

Updated rain totals from NWS are 0.05″ through 7 PM tonight, and an additional 0.06″ through sunrise tomorrow morning. Given our dry September, this probably won’t be enough to rain out ball games Saturday.

LITTLE RAIN ON SATURDAY – Early Birds: 62°, High: 76°

Clouds will hang around all day, and light showers will continue off and on throughout the day.

Another 0.10″ is expected, but most of the day will be just cloudy, with passing drizzly/light showers lasting an hour or few hours each. Each model has its own idea on ETAs, but to detail that here will only confuse rather than inform. Some models have very little rain, others present a less intermittent picture. None of it is particularly helpful or reliable, other than that’s is going to rain a little.

If you’re going outside, have a rain jacket. We aren’t expecting any thunderstorms or strong winds, and downpours are very unlikely.

Again, most of the day will be cloudy, so have a rain jacket or umbrella within reach, and go about your day.

I almost prefer this to low 90°s and sunburn. especially when hearing good music.

LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

The rainy pattern will remain, but it should be winding down Sunday. This should be the driest of the three days.

Be ready for a little more rain if you’re Titans tailgating.

Supermoon Eclipse

Sunday night, y’all.

I’m still concerned about clouds obstructing Supermoonmania. Even more concerned than I was last night.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.